SP500 March 3 2025 Update: Where is the Bottom?
For the past few weeks, I expected the major American stock market indices forming a Major high.
Today let’s see what we can expect for the next few weeks.
Let’s start with the 20 days cycle.
On February 24, the SP500 meet his 5,978.91 target, triggered on February 21, and is now on his way to form the 20 days low on February 28.
The next 20 days low is schedule on March 17, the green dashed vertical line, and this date is based on the regular Hurst nominal model,
But since, lately the cycles run little bit longer than their average length,
We can expect the next 20 days low will form little bit later than expected.
What’s next?
On a bullish market, we will expect the SP500 rally and cross above his cycle line, providing and upside target.
But since we have a lot’s of weakness in the market, there is a possibility, the SP500 will rally toward his cycle line, using it as resistance without crossing above, then resume his downtrend.
The peak for this 20 days cycle is expected on March 9.
You will find the resistance cycle line for this week, with their potential upside target if the SP500 cross a above them this week.
With 5 successful signals out of 6, the success rate for the 20 days cycle is so far 83.33 %.
The 40 days cycle.
On February 25, the SP500 cross below his cycle lines at 6,032.90 and 5,992.16, providing a downside target zone between 5,918.37 and 5,836.89.
On the same day the SP500, touch lightly the top of the zone, but on February 27 and 28 fill up completely the zone, with a 5,837.66 low on Friday, the SP500 was right on the bottom part of the zone.
The February 28, was certainly the 40 days low.
If that is correct, this 40 days cycle was 46 days long, 12 days longer than his 34 days average.
Like mentioned on the 20 days analysis, it seems the cycles run longer than their regular length.
Technically at that stage of the cycle, and since it’s the first 40 days since the last 20 weeks low on January 13, the market supposed to find support on his cycle lines, and not crossing them.
This is another sign of weakness.
Using the Hurst nominal model, the next 40 days low, is expected on April 13.
But again, there is possibility the SP500 form his next low, few days later.
With 2 trading signals, which both was successful.
the success rate for the 40 days cycle, since the beginning of the year is 100%,
On the chart there is a table with the resistance cycle lines for this week with their potential upside target if the SP500 cross above this week.
The 80 days cycle
Like mentioned in my previous updates, the 80 days cycle lines are very important to keep an eye on.
The 80 days cycle line is a very important cycle lines, because they help to define the strength of the longer cycles.
I will treat this topic in another update.
For the second time of the year, on February 25th, the SP500 gave a trading signal,
This time was on the downside, invalidating the previous 6,343.79 upside target, when the SP500 cross below his cycle line, at 5,998.03 and 5,950.33, providing a downside target zone between, 5,848.63 for the top of the zone and 5,753.23 for the bottom part.
The Friday’s February 28 low at 5,837.66, enter slightly the top of the zone, meeting his target.
Is it the end of the decline?
Not necessary, because the next 80 days low is schedule to form on March 22, the vertical purple dashed line.
At the actual time of the cycle, the SP500 should trade above his cycle, and form his low on his cycle lines,
finding support at the time of the first 80 days low formation, since the last major low on January 13.
The fact that the SP500 already cross below his cycle lines,
give more credit for the February 19, 6,147.43 high as a potential candidate for the 18 months cycle peak.
What’s next?
The SP 500 should rally toward his cycle line, and at least trade sideways on his cycle line,
the positive option is, the SP500 cross above his cycle line trying to make a new all-time high for the 18 months cycle peak.
On the chart the cycle lines table for this week, and their potential upside targets.
But since there is a high probability, the February 19 high is the 18 months cycle peak, there is the possibility the SP500 will rally toward his cycle lines, use them as resistance and continue his decline until the third week of May, where, due the Hurst rule of synchronicity,
The 20, 40 weeks and 18 months should form a major low.
The only positive news, was the Friday impressive green candle bar, confirming the low was at least a 40 days low.
Because the SP500 crossed back below his cycle lines before meeting his previous upside target, the success rate is only 50 % so far for this year.
We have 2 trading signal, 1 negative and 1 positive.
The 20 and 40 weeks cycle.
For the fourth weeks on a row, the SP500 median price trade on his 20 weeks cycle line, this week the median price was few points below his cycle line, so we can estimate a crossing point at 5,953.27,
For a potential target at 5,759.11, 194.16 points, or 3.26% of potential decline.
To valid this target, we need this week, the SP500 trading below his 20 weeks cycle line.
This decline should bring the SP500 to the next 20 weeks low, and like mentioned above will conclude the next 40 weeks cycle and the 18 months cycle.
The 5,759.11 could be a minimum target, since it will also be the 40 weeks cycle,
The SP500 should cross below his 40 weeks cycle line on his way to form his low during the third week of May.
The 40 weeks cycle line table for the next 3 weeks and their potential target is on the chart.
We can also notice, how the 40 weeks cycle trend line, the blue trend line, provide a strong support to the SP500 market.
Last week low the SP500 found support on it.
We have to watch carefully the SP500 reaction during the next few weeks with his cycle trend line.
Soon the SP500 will cross sharply below and stay below, this will confirm, the highest high before the crossing below his cycle line, will be the 18 months cycle peak.
And the SP500 will not make a new all-time high between the crossing time and the end of May.
The 18 months cycle.
At the time of the 18 months cycle low formation, the cycle line will be between 5,530 and 5,385,
Technically, the SP500 should find support on them, but a more precise target will be calculating,
when the SP 500 will cross below his 40 weeks cycle line,
When Analysis a stock market, we always have to have a plan B,
If the SP500 cross sharply below it, then we have to reconsider the last 54 months cycle position.
But for now this discussion is purely academic.
For more information on the longer picture, the different possible position for the 54 months and 9 years cycle, I recommend to read my last updates.
Conclusion
The SP500 is on his way to form his next 18 months cycle low, due by the end of May between, the most likely price target should be between 5,530 and 5,385.
