S&P500 September 16, 2024
THE S&P500-10 DAYS CYCLE
On august 30, the S&P500 crossed below his cycle line at 5600 for a potential target at 5548.
The target has been met and on sept 6, the same day the S&P500 made a low at 5402.
On Thursday September 12, the S&P500 crossed above his cycle line at 5500 for a potential upside target at 5597.
A rally of 97 points or 1.77%.
The same day, the S&P500 meet his target
The success rate is 100%, meaning trading each signal was successful.
The cycle trend is down for this week.
The S&P500-20 days cycle
After a peak at 5651.62, the S&P500 crossed below his cycle line once on September 3 at 5607 for a potential target at 5560 or 47 Points.
The target has been met and even exceed with a low at 5442.62.
On august 14 the S&P500 crossed back above his cycle line at 5420 providing an upside potential target at 5720, or 300 points of possible rally or 5.53% potential profit.
On august 26, the 5651,62 high was 69 points or 1.20% below his target, missing his original target.
The fact that the market missed his target is the warning, of some bearishness coming into the market.
The September 6 low, is the 20 days cycle low and the next low is expected on September 28.
What’s next for the 20 days cycle?We expect the S&P500 crossing above his cycle line, and provide an upside target, this will confirm the 20 days low on September 6.
on Friday 13, the S&P500 crossed above his cycle line at 5585, providing an upside target at 5767 a new all time high, but to valid this signal we needconfirmation the next trading day.
On the top left corner, there is the cycle line for this week and their potential targets, if the S&P500 cross above them.
The cycle trend for this week is up, and the success rate for the 20 days cycle is 87%.
The S&P500-40 days cycle
On my last update, see the video on my YouTube channel,
I was expected the S&P500 to find support on his 40 days cycle line and forming his 40 days cycle low on this line.
This low was expected on September 8 but the SP500 formed his low on September 6, 2 days early.
On September 6 the S&P500 crossed below his cycle line at 5537 and 5513.
Providing a potential downside target zone between 5423 and 5375, or respectively 2.05 and 2.51 %, of possible profits.
The target has been meet the same day with a low at 5402.
The previous upside target between 5786 and 5764, have not been meet.
Since the S&P500 cross back below his cycle line before the targets have been meet, show another sign of weakness in the market.
And in this case the targets are not valid anymore, technically the market should meet his target at his peak formation,
Since the 40 days cycles low has formed, I now can draw the 40 days cycle trend line, (the blue line) which will help us to identify the next 80 days cycles peak.
If the 40 days cycle low is confirm, the cycle trend for this week is up,
On the top left corner, there is the cycle line for this week and their potential upside targets.
The success rate trading this cycle is 85 %.
The S&P500- 80 days cycle
On August 26, the S&P500 crossed above his cycle line at 5602, providing a potential upside target at 6084, a new all-time high.
In my last update I mentioned, the crossing was not very powerful.
This week action on the S&P500, confirm there is some weakness coming into the market.
The S&P500 trade on his cycle line without crossing below.
It is very important for the S&P500 to stay above his cycle lines.
A crossing below them, will mean the market start to turn bearish.
For now the 6084 upside target still valid until the market cross back below his cycle lines without meeting it,
If that happen, it will be bearish.
When the S&P500 cross below his 40 days cycle trend line.
Hurst call it VTL (for more details, I recommend to watch my series of video secrets behind the cycles).
The crossing will confirm the 80 days cycle peak has formed or he is in formation.
We have to keep a close eye where the peak will form compare to peak of the cycle.
The peak forming on the left side, or left translation,
will confirm the bearishness, and we can expect a sharp correction for the 80 days cycle formation, expected on October 15.
If it’s happen on the right side, we can expect a moderate correction.
Technically at that time of the cycle, the S&P500 supposed to find support on his cycle lines.
A crossing below will confirm the market turn bearish, at least on the short term.
The cycle lines and their potential downside targets are on the top left corner.
The cycle trend is still up, and the success rate is 100%.
Meaning trading each signal was a success.
The S&P500- 20 weeks cycle
this week the S&P500 trade right on his line, a crossing below will definitely confirm the bearishness in the market.
The 20 weeks and the 40 weeks cycle line are a major support lines.
The last 20 weeks low was on august 5, the next one is expected on the first week of December.
On the top left corner of the above chart, you will find the cycle line and the potential downside target if the S&P500 cross below this week.
The S&P500, 20 weeks cycle trend is still up and the success rate is 100%.
In Conclusion
We start to see more weakness in the overall market.
We have to watch carefully the market reaction with the 80 days and 20 weeks cycle line.
As mentioned above, a crossing below them will confirm the bear is around.
Why we start to have a weakness in the market?
in a future post, I will analyze in details the possible reason of the SP500 weakness, with a long term analysis article.