SP500 Market January 27 2025

INTRODUCTION

On the SP500 market, it seems the cycles run little bit longer then the usually J.M.Hurst nominal model, we will see that in details in the following analysis.

But price wise all the previous targets have been meet, and the SP500 even provide new targets.

Let’s see what we can expect for the next 3 months.

The SP500 market 10 days cycle

For the very short term trader, let’s start with the 10 days cycle.

Due to the J.M.Hurst principle of synchronicity, since the last 20 weeks cycle formed a low on January 13, the 10 day also formed a low on the same date.

Two days later, the SP500 market crossed above his cycle line at 5915.49, providing an upside target at 6,057 or 142 points or 2.40% ,

7 days later, with a high at 6,100, the SP500 market meet his target for a profit of 185 points or 3.12%.

Since the beginning of the year, this is the first trading signal, and this signal was successful giving 100% of success rate with a very good profit.

The next 10 days cycle was scheduled for the January 21, but the SP500 market was so bullish on the short term basis, he doesn’t made any pullback.

The next one is schedule for January 29, technically at that time of the cycle, the market should cross below his cycle line providing a downside target, which should find support on his 20 days cycle line.

But due to the bullishness of the market, there is a probability, the SP500 market may only find support on his cycle line which will be at 6,088.47.

The SP500 market 20 days cycle.

Like all other cycles up to the 20 weeks, the 20 days cycle formed a low on January 13, 2 days later on 15 the SP500 crossed above his cycle line at 5,903.46, providing an upside target at 6,033, 130 points or 2.20% of potential profits.

On January 21, the SP500 market meet his target with a high at 6,051.51, 152 points or 2.57% of profits.

The next 20 days cycle low is expected on January 31, the green dashed vertical line and the blue arrow on the bottom right on the chart, and should find support on his cycle line at 6088.

For further information about the 20 days cycle for the next 3 months, please see the 80 days roadmap, since we use the 20 days cycle line to trade the 80 days.

The SP500 market 40 days cycle.

The last 40 days cycle low formed on January 13 2025, 3 days later on 16 the SP500 crossed above his cycle line at 5,936.27 for a potential upside target at 6,099.23,

But to be a valid trading signal, the median price line, the yellow line have to cross both cycle lines.

This happened on January 21, when the SP500 market crossed above the second cycle line at 6,007, for a target at 6,242, forming a target zone between 6,242 and 6,099.

The next 40 days cycle low is schedule for the February 16, and the market should find support on his cycle line, is still little bit too early to know where the cycle lines will be at that time.

The 80 days cycle.

On January 13 2025, the SP500 also formed his 80 days cycle low at 5,773.31.

On January 23, the SP500 market crossed above his cycle line at 6058.55, providing an upside target at 6343.79.

The next 80 days cycle low is expected on March 22.

Since the beginning of the year this is the first trading signal for the 80 days cycle.

To know what to expect for the next 3 months, let’s see the 80 days cycle roadmap.

As reminder the red dashed line is the 20 days cycle line, in fact to trade or study the 80 days cycle, we use the 20 days cycle line.

For the other cycles we use the 2 times lower time frame cycle line.

Here the 80 days roadmap.

After forming his cycle low on January 13, the SP500 crossed above his cycle line at 5,903 on January 15, providing an upside target at 6033, 130 points or 2.25% of potential profits.

With a high at 6,051, the SP500 meet his target on January 21, for a profit of 148 dollars or 2.50% in only 6 days.

After forming his peak which is expected around January 25, the market should start his correction to form his low on January 31, and find support on his cycle line.

The cycle line will be at 6,088.

After the 20 days low, the SP500 market should rebound on his way to form his 40 days peak, the target zone for the 40 days peak is between 6,242 and 6,099.

The bottom part of the target zone have already been meet.

When the SP500 market 40 days peak will be confirm, he will cross below his cycle line and provide a price target for the 40 days low, on February 16, certainly on his cycle line.

After forming his 40 days low, the SP500 will cross back above his cycle line on his way to form the 80 days cycle peak.

The price target for the 80 days cycle is 6,343.79.

Then the market will cross back below his cycle line,

The crossing will provide a target price for the 80 days cycle low.

The SP500 market will form a first low around end of April, then rebound toward his cycle line, using it as resistance, then will resume his decline up to March 22, which is the expected date for the 80 days cycle low.

Where the 80 days low will form will be very important, to stay bullish, technically he should find support on his cycle line, then rebound.

If he cross sharply below his cycle line, then there is a very high probability, the previous high before the crossing, will be the next 20 and 40 weeks peak and maybe also the next 18 months peak.

The next 18 months low is expected in May 2025.

The 20 weeks cycle on the SP500.

As expected in my previous update, the SP500 found support on his cycle line.

As mentioned in my introduction, the 20 weeks cycle run longer than expected, forming his low on January 13 2025 instead of December 18 2024.

This 20 weeks cycle was 23 weeks long instead of the Hurst nominal model 18 weeks.

Because the previous 20 weeks cycle formed later then expected, the next one will form little bit later, around the third weeks of May, at the same time than the 40 weeks and the 18 months cycle, around that date we can expect an important correction since 3 major cycles, the 20 weeks, the 40 week and the 18 months, will form their lows at the same time.

Conclusion

Even if the SP500 made a new all-time high this week, the 20, 40 weeks and 18 months cycle of the American stock market, are in down phase,

We can expect more decline until end of May 2025, when the next 18 months cycle low is expected to form.