This is the final 2024 update.
We’ll explore long-term scenarios and provide the success rate table for different markets in 2024.
Let’s begin with the 20-day cycle.
On December 20, the S&P500, started a new 20 days cycle, because this is the first 20 days cycle since the potential 20 weeks cycle low, the S&P500 rally very strongly 208 points or 3.56%.
the S&P500 crossed below his cycle line on December 13 and 17, at 6071 and 6061 providing a downside target zone between 6042 and 6022, with a 5832.30 low on December 20, the S&P50 meet and exceed his target, this maybe the first sign of weakness in the S&P500 market.
Technically the S&P 500 should cross back above his cycle line and provide an upside target, then on January 6 and after forming his peak above the cycle line, the market should find support on his cycle line around 5907.
It is very important for the bullish scenario, the market will cross above his cycle line and find support on his cycle line during the next 20 days cycle low formation on January 6.
If the S&P500 do not cross above his cycle line before January 6, then we can expect more decline during the next few weeks.
The success rate is 85.71%.
The 40 days cycle.
The December 20 low at 5832.30, marks at least a 40 days cycle low.
A new 40-day cycle has begun.
In my December 16 post, I was expected the S&P 500 will cross below his cycle line.
After forming the December low, the S&P 500 rebound toward his cycle lines, using it as resistance and Friday the S&P500 lost little bit more than 1%.
This could be the first sign of weakness in the American market, and the longer term cycles may have already formed their peaks.
Here the cycle lines and their potential upside targets for this week, if the market cross above it.
Cycle lines: Targets
December 30: 6075 6318
6047 6262
December 31: 6071 6310
6057 6282
January 1: 6057 6282
6046 6260
January 2: 6072 6252
5969 6106
January 3: 6046 6260
5900 5968
The next 40 days cycle low is expected to form on January 24, the blue vertical dashed line.
We have to keep a close look at the solid blue cycle trend line, this is the 40 days cycle trend line, meaning when the S&P500 will cross below this will confirm the next 80 days cycle peak is formed or in formation.
The peak for this 40 days cycle is expected for January 6, if the peak occur before this will confirm the S&P500 is losing steam and we can expect the market enter in corrective phase especially if the S&P500 fail to cross above his cycle line.
If the peak occur after the January 10, then this will give little bit more oxygen to the market and we may see potentially a new all time high.
The success rate for the 40 days cycle is 90.91%
The 80 days Cycle.
In my last December 16 update, I mentioned the possibility of two different scenarios to place the last 80 days cycle.
The first one, like I mentioned on my last analysis, was on October 7, then we expected the next low for the December 14.
The second option was the 80 days low on November 4, in this case we can expect the next 80 days low on January 11 2025.
The market naturally choose the first option.
I was expected the S&P500 crossing below his cycle lines, this occurred on December 18 at 5985 for a potential target at 5871.65.
On December 20, 6 days later than expected December 14, the S&P500 made a low at 5832.30, meeting and exceeding slightly his target.
After forming his low the S&P500 crossed back above his cycle line, confirming this low is the 80 days cycle, the crossing happened at 5904.71 and 5978.34 providing an upside target zone between 6124.38 and 5977.10, on December 24 the S&P500 meet his target by making a 6040.10 high, right in the middle of the target zone.
Now the market is at a crossroad, if the market cross back below his cycle lines, this will confirm some bearishness is coming into the market.
The next 80 days cycle low is expected for the February 27, the purple vertical dashed line.
The success rate is 100%.
The 20 weeks cycle.
In my last post, I was expecting the 20 weeks cycle low form very soon and I also mentioned, during the formation of this 20 weeks cycle low, the S&P500 market should find support on his cycle line, which will be around 5,840 on the December 14.
On December 20, 6 days later than expected, the S&P500 formed a low at 5832.30, just 8 points below the target, and the S&P500 found support on his cycle line like expected.
Why the December 20 is the best date to label the 20 weeks cycle, because since the last august low, 133 passed and according to the Hurst nominal model the 2o weeks cycle is 136 days long or 19 weeks.
What’s next for the 20 week cycle?
On December 20, the S&P500 started a new 20 weeks cycle.
The peak for this cycle is expected on the third or fourth week of February. We have to watch carefully where the peak of the market will occur compare to the peak of the cycle, if the peak occur on the left part, it will be a left time translation and if it’s happen on the right part then this will be a left translation.
The low is expect end of April or May
The success rate for the 20 weeks cycle is 100%.
The 40 weeks cycle.
If the December low is confirm as the 20 weeks low, then we start the last phase of this 40 weeks cycle. There is a high probability the December 6 high at 6099.97 is the 40 weeks peak, but we need confirmation.
We will have confirmation when the S&P5500 will cross below his 40 weeks cycle trend line, the solid blue line draw from the last major low.
During the next 40 weeks low formation, the S&P500 should at least decline to his cycle line, the low is expected around end of April to May 2025.
The success rate for the 40 weeks cycle is 100%.
The 18 Monthly cycle.
On the monthly time frame we will explore the different possibilities
There is a high probability for the 18 months cycle peaked on December 6.
If that is correct, then the S&P500 should start his correction on his way to form the next 18 months cycle ow end of April or May 2025.
Soon the S&P500 will cross below his cycle trend line the green trend line, then we will have the confirmation of the 18 months peak
The S&P500 should find support on his cycle line, the green line around 5377 (13% decline).
There is the possibility the market will cross below his cycle line in this case the potential downside target will be 4501(26.01%).
This is only a possibility, it doesn’t mean the market will go there, but we have to be ready in case the market do not follow our first scenario.
The red cycle line on the chart is the 54 months cycle line, which will be at 3960 (35%) end of April beginning to May.
I personally do not believe the market will reach the 3960 marks, all depend where we place the last 54 months cycle.
THE 54 MONTHS CYCLE.
If we place the last 54 months cycle in March 2020, then the next one was on October 2023 and the next one will be in 2027.
So this 18 months shouldn’t be too bearish since it will be the first 18 months from the October 2023,
If we place the 54 months on 2018, the next one was on October 2022 and the next in June 2026.
The actual 18 months correction should be sharper then the above one, since it will be the second 18 months cycle from the last 54 months cycle low in October 2022.
The success rate for 18 months cycle is 100%.
In conclusion.
The SP500 index start to give some signs of weakness.
We can expect a correction starting soon, the first support will be around the 5377 area.
SUCCESS RATE TABLE
Above are the two success rate tables for 2023 and 2024.
By analyzing both charts, we can observe the consistent profitability when using only the cycle line signals.
Of course, like any stock market tool, it cannot be used alone to limit risks and should be combined with other trading tools. However, incorporating Hurst cycles into a trading strategy can significantly boost profits.
I have circled in red the market cycles with less effective signals. This table can assist traders in selecting the most profitable cycles for consistent gains.
Still, it’s important to remember that past performance does not guarantee future results.
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