GOLD MARKET DECEMBER /9/2024 UPDATE
INTRODUCTION
During my last October update, I mentioned there is two different scenario for the 20 weeks cycle,
The first scenario was, that the low was expected around November 10th,
and if the low find support on his cycle line, which was at 238, for the gold Etf GLD, this will confirm the June 18 is the 18 month cycle low.
The second scenario was, if the gold market cross sharply below is cycle line then the 18 months cycle was on the February 2024.
The gold market decided by himself which scenario was the best.
By choosing the first one, the gold ETF GLD was expected to form a low at 238$, but the market formed a low on November 14 at 236$, only 1.87$ below his cycle line.
On the gold bullion the low was a 2570$ right on his cycle line.
Now let’s see what’s happened since my last update and what we can expect for the near future.
Let’s Start With the 20 Days Cycle.
The last 20 days cycle form on November 14 with a low on the gold future at 2,527$.
As expected after a major low, the gold market cross above his cycle line at 2,677 providing an upside Target at 2,827, which will be a new all-time high.
The next 20 days cycle low was expected on the December 2, and as the first 20 day low after a major low in the market, the gold market should find a support on his cycle line.
But on December 2, the gold market make his low at 2644$ only 50$ above his cycle line.
If the December 2 was the 20 days low, then the next low is expected around December 20.
During the next low formation, the gold market should cross below his cycle line and will provide a downside target.
After the gold market crossed above his cycle line on November 22, the gold market made an high at 2,732$, then the Market start to correct and move sideways, on December 6, the Gold Market crossed below his cycle line, there is a possibility the December 6th could be the 20 days low,
in this case the 20-day cycle would be 22 days long which is 4 days longer then the regular 18 days length
If this scenario is confirm, then the next 20-day cycle low will be, December 24, in any case we expect a low between December 20 and 24.
But since the gold market crossed slightly below his cycle line on December 6, providing a downside target at 2,585$, the market could be on his way to the 40 days cycle low, and the December 2 is the 20 days low, to invalid this analysis we need the gold market rebound and cross back above his cycle line on Monday, otherwise we can label the 20 days low on December 2.
Usually at the peak of the first 20 days cycle, the market supposed to meet his Target, but this time the gold market didn’t meet his target yet, is it the first sign of weakness of the gold Market?
During the formation of next low the market should cross below his cycle line, providing a downside Target very close to his 40 days cycle lines.
This downside Target will be the 40 days cycle target price.
The green trend line is the 20-day cycle line or VTL and when the market will cross below, this will confirm the 20 and 40 days cycle peak formation.
The 40 Days Cycle
Yesterday December 6th, the gold market crossed above cycle line at 2,660 for an upside Target at 2,779$.
The last 40 days signal was on November 11, when the gold market cross below his cycle line at 2,691$, for a potential downside Target at $2,581.
On November 14th, the market Made a low at 2,527$ meeting an
Exceeding slightly his target.
The next low is expected on December 18th, technically the market should find support on the cycle lines, which will be around 2694$.
Then after forming his first 40 days cycle since the November 14 low, the market should rally on his way to the 80 days peak.
On the top right of the chart, there is a table with the cycle lines for this week and their potential targets, if the gold market cross below them this week.
The peak of this 40-day cycle was expected on the December 1st, but until now a peak has formed on November 25th, and if the market do not make higher high than the 2,732, before crossing below his 20 days cycle line or FLD and the cycle trend line, VTL, this will mean some bearishness coming into the gold market, the 40 days cycle peak formed on the left part of the cycle, the red vertical dash line.
When a peak formed on the left side of the cycle, this usually is a sign of weakness, and the following correction is usually more important, than if the market peak on the right part of the cycle,
Hurst call that, time translation, if you want to know more about the time translation rules, I recommend to read my post about time translation,
The 80 Days cycle
Due to the Hurst rule of synchronicity, the last 80 Days cycle formed a low on November 14th at the same time then the 20-week cycle low.
The next low is scheduled to form the January 21st 2025, the purple vertical dash line on the chart.
Since the formation of the last 80 Days cycle, the gold market still trading below is cycle lines, technically the gold market should cross above it, providing an upside target zone, this will be a very important information, about the amount of bullishness left in the gold market.
Technically the low for this cycle should form on his cycle lines, that’s why is very important for the market to cross above his cycle line
If the market use his cycle lines as resistance, and fail to cross above them before the December 18, date of the 80-day cycle peak formation, this will confirm there is bearishness coming into the market.
On the top right table you will find the cycle lines and their potential upside targets, in case if the market cross above this week.
The next peak formation is expected on the December 18th, if the peak form before this date, it will occur on the left part of the cycle, like mentioned above this will be bearish for the gold Market at least on the short term.
The 20-week cycle
From the last 18 months low on June 25 to the November 14 low, I drew the 20 weeks cycle trend line, when the gold market will cross below it, this will confirm the 40 weeks cycle peak has formed or in formation,
After forming his peak, the gold market should cross below his cycle line, finding support on the 40 week cycle line.
The next 20 weeks cycle low is expected to form on a March 17th 2025, the green vertical dash line.
The success rate for trading the 20-week cycle is 100%.
The last signal was on the week of June, when the gold future was at 2353$ and the GLD ETF was at 216$, for until now the profit was 323$ on the bullion.
The 40 weeks cycle
The next 40 week cycle low is expected to form end of March 2025, and to keep the gold market in the bull trend, the gold should find support on his cycle line which should be around 2,650 on the gold future, and 244 on the ETF GLD.
The peak for this 40 weeks cycle should occur in January or February 2025.
If during the 40 weeks cycle low formation, the gold market cross below the 40 weeks cycle line, then we may considerate the bearish scenario.
In conclusion
The gold market is at the cross road, the next few weeks are very
important to know if the bull market is still intact or some weakness will slowdown the gold market uptrend.
Using cycle for trading or investing in the stock market is very useful, using the different Hurst tools, like the VTL or FLD give a very high success rate on the short or longer term,
Combining cycles with active management for very long-term investor, with your own strategy, you can build up a very successful portfolio, like for example using the 18-month or 40 week cycle or even longer,
By clicking on the below button, you can watch the video version of this post.