Introduction
My last update was on November 1st 2024. this update we expected the first 20 weeks cycle low, since the last 18 months in August 2024, to form in mid-December 2024.
Let’s see what’s happened and what we expect for the next 5 months.
For the very short term traders, let’s start with the 10 days cycle.
Since the beginning of the year, the Bitcoins market provide 4 trading signals on the 10 days cycle.
The first one was on January 2, when the Bitcoins market crossed above his cycle line at 94687, for a potential target at 98059.
The next day the Bitcoins market meet his target with a high at 98951, for
a profits of 4264 dollars.
The second trading signal occurred on January 8 with a crossing below his cycle line at 96550 for a 90340 target.
With a low at 91215 on January 9, the market missed his target by only 0.96%, but since the low is within the 1% of margin of error, the target is considerate meet.
The third signal was on the upside, when the market crossed above his cycle line at 94687 on January 14, for a potential upside target at 98159.
The next day the market meet and exceed his target with a high at 100715 for a profits of 3472 dollars.
The fourth signal was on the downside on January 26, when the market crossed below his cycle line at 103606, giving a downside target at 97856.
The next day the Bitcoins market made a low at 97750 meeting perfectly his target, for a profit of 5750 dollars.
The four trading signal was successful, giving a success rate of 100% for the Bitcoins market 10 days cycle, for a total of 12594 dollars in only 25 days.
The Bitcoins market 20 days cycle.
After forming his last 20 days cycle on January 9,
The Bitcoins crossed above his cycle line on January 17 at 100,164,
Providing an upside target at 109,113, 8949 dollars or 8.93% of potential profits.
3 days later on the January, the Bitcoins market made a high at 109,356 dollars, meeting perfectly his target.
After forming his 20 days cycle peak, the Bitcoins Market start his correction,
And like expected found support on his cycle line on January 27, matching perfectly the length of the Hurst nominal model for the 20 days cycle length, 18 days.
The next 20 days cycle low is expected to form on February 14, and should cross below his cycle line,
It will provide a downside target for the next 40 days cycle low.
After the 20 days cycle low confirmation on the January 27,
I draw the 20 days cycle trend line, the green trend line,
When the Bitcoins market will cross below it, this will confirm the 40 days cycle has formed or in formation.
Before starting his correction there is the possibility, the Bitcoins will make a new high.
The 20 days cycle gave 3 trading signal since the beginning of 2025 and only 2 was successful giving a success rate of 66%
The 40 days cycle.
Due to the Hurst synchronicity rule, the January 9 2025 was also the last 40 days cycle low.
After forming his low, the Bitcoins crossed above his cycle line at 96,885 on January 15.
This crossing provide an upside potential 102,555 dollars target, or 5670 dollars or 5.85% of potential profits.
2 days later, the Bitcoins market meet and exceed his target.
Now the Bitcoins market is on his way to his 40 days cycle peak, which should be about now.
When the 40 days cycle peak will be confirm,
The Bitcoins will correct and should find support on his cycle line on February 12, at that time the cycle line will be around 104,000 dollars.
If the Bitcoins market follow this scenario, then we can expect the market move sideways for the next 2 weeks.
If the Bitcoins cross below his 40 days cycle line,
This will means there is some weakness in the Bitcoins market.
So far this year the 40 days cycle gave 1 trading signal, this signal was successful, giving a success rate of 100%.
The Bitcoins market 80 days cycle.
Since the last 80 days cycle low on January 9 2025, the Bitcoins market trade along his cycle line, until the January 23 when the market crossed above his cycle line at 103,650 for a potential target at 116,085, 12,345 dollars or 12% of potential profits.
The only concern is, after crossing above his cycle line, the Bitcoins market keep moving down, this could be the first sign of some weakness coming into the Bitcoins market.
We have to watch carefully if the market cross below his cycle line before meeting his target.
If that happen then this will invalid the 116,085 upside target and this could be negative for the Bitcoins market,
And we can expect more decline to come.
This is the first trading signal for the year 2025.
The Bitcoins market 20 weeks cycle
Like the S&P500, the Bitcoins market 20 weeks cycle run longer than expected.
The last 20 weeks cycle was 22 weeks long, 4 weeks longer then the Hurst nominal model.
This cycle low occurred on January 9 2025, instead of mid December 2024.
Like expecting in my last update, the Bitcoins market found support on his cycle line,
Then rebound on his way to his next 20 weeks cycle peak.
The next 20 weeks cycle low, is schedule during the first 2 weeks of May.
Technically, at that time the Bitcoins market supposed to cross below his 20 weeks cycle line, and should find support on his 40 weeks cycle.
The crossing will provide a downside target for the next 40 weeks cycle.
Is still too early to know where the 20 weeks cycle line will be.
The 40 weeks cycle
Due to the Hurst rule of synchronicity, the last 40 weeks cycle formed at the same time then the last 18 months low in August 2024.
The next one is expected to form on the third weeks of April 2025.
Since it’s the first 40 week cycle since the last 18 months cycle low,
The Bitcoins market should find support on his cycle line,
This cycle line will be between 100,241 and 95,133 dollars.
Here the success rate since the beginning of this year by cycles.
10 days cycle: 4 signals = 4 successful =100%
20 days cycle: 3 signals = 2 successful =66%
40 days cycle: 1 signal = 1 success = 100%
80 days cycle: 1 signal
Conclusion
The Bitcoins market is still in bull market, but we expect the 40 weeks peak form very soon.
On the upside the next target is 116,085 and on the downside we have to watch the market reaction when he will form his next 40 weeks cycle.
The number to pay attention on the downside are between 100,241 and 95,133.