The Long-Term Perspective on Bitcoin: An In-Depth Analysis
The Montlhy Time Frame
The Bitcoins, the pioneering cryptocurrency, began trading in 2009 but gained significant popularity starting in May 2017. Prior to this surge, trading volumes were low, with the first notable price low occurring in December 2018,to understand Bitcoin’s price dynamics, we can apply phasing analysis, a method that reveals the nominal model of Bitcoin and aligns it with the principles laid out by J.M. Hurst. Although the Bitcoins was not around during Hurst’s time, his theories remain relevant, demonstrating that similar cycles can be observed in emerging markets.
Understanding Phasing Analysis
Conducting a phasing analysis involves examining monthly charts, identifying prominent lows, and calculating the average cycle length. For Bitcoin, we assessed the period from the first major low in 2017 to the latest significant low in 2024. This analysis revealed a cycle length of approximately 17.25 months, closely mirroring Hurst’s nominal model of 18 months.
Key Lows in The Bitcoin’s Market
- First Low: March 2020
- Second Low: June 2021
- Third Low: November 2022
the November 2022 low also marked a significant 54-month cycle low, contributing to the volatility observed between the June 2021 and November 2022 lows.
Current Market Trends
The subsequent 18-month cycle low is projected for August 2024. Historically, markets tend to rally sharply following an 18-month low. For instance, after the November 2022 low, The Bitcoins experienced a remarkable rally of 376%. However, the current rally since the August 2024 low has only reached 34%.
Analyzing Cycle Phases
The Bitcoins monthly chart indicates three key sine waves: a blue wave for the 18 months cycle, a red wave representing the 4.5-year cycle and a green wave depicting the 9-year cycle. Currently, the 9-year cycle is in a descending phase, suggesting a potentially less bullish market compared to earlier in the cycle.
The previous all-time high of $73,794 occurred during the ascending phase of the 4.5-year cycle. As we move forward, the next 18-month cycle is expected to form in February 2026, followed by another significant cycle in August 2027.
Preparing for Market Changes
It’s crucial to consider different scenarios when analyzing the Bitcoin’s market trends. If the March 2024 cycle does not lead to a new all-time high, we may see a bearish market transition. Monitoring where the peak of the current 18-month cycle will form, will provide valuable insights into future market trends.
Alternative Scenarios
Another possibility is that the Bitcoins November 2022 low represents a higher degree low within the 9-year cycle. This won’t drastically alter our overall analysis, as we focus primarily on trading lower cycles. However, it does offer a broader perspective on market sentiment.
By applying Hurst’s principle of synchronicity, we can confidently assert that the Bitcoins November low is at least an 18-month low. This insight allows us to formulate a trading strategy for the upcoming 18-month and 40-week cycles, and even delve into lower time frames, as synchronicity applies to daily and intraday cycles.
Concusion
Understanding the Bitcoin’s long-term cycles through phasing analysis and Hurst’s principles provides a robust framework for anticipating market movements. By staying aware of potential scenarios and cycle dynamics, traders can make informed decisions in a rapidly evolving market landscape.
Understanding The Bitcoin's 40-Week Cycle
In the world of cryptocurrency, particularly the Bitcoins, understanding market cycles can be crucial for making informed investment decisions. One significant cycle to note is the 40-week cycle.
Current Cycle Analysis
The bitcoins last major low occurred in August 2024, marking the start of the current 40-week cycle. We can anticipate that the next low within this cycle will occur around March 31, 2025. Notably, the first half of this cycle is expected to form his low in the first week of December 2024.
Cycle Visualization
On the weekly chart, the red semi-circle represents the 40-week cycle. This visual aid helps traders and investors track the cycle’s progression and potential turning points.
Timing and Predictions
At this stage, it’s premature to determine whether we will experience a left or right time translation for the peak of the 40-week cycle. The first indications will emerge once the current 20-week cycle concludes. At that point, I will establish a trend line for this cycle, known as the VTL (Value Trend Line) according to J.M. Hurst.
Key Indicators
A crucial signal will be when the Bitcoin crosses below its 20-week cycle trend line. This movement will indicate that the peak of the 40-week cycle has either formed or is in formation. Depending on the timing of this translation, we can better predict the magnitude of the next market correction.
Focus on Shorter Time Frames
Currently, the Bitcoin remains below its 40-week cycle line (the red line on the chart), call FLD by J.M.Hurst, FLD stand for future line of demarcation. Given this situation, it’s advisable to concentrate on shorter-term strategies. The next lower time frame to analyze is the 20-week cycle.
By understanding these cycles and their implications, traders can position themselves more strategically in the volatile cryptocurrency market. Keep an eye on upcoming developments as we approach critical dates in the cycle.t