The Bitcoin Market Analysis: June 2025 Technical Cycle Update
Introduction
I wrote this article on Thursday evening, June 5, 2025. My previous Bitcoin update was published on April 7.
During that update, I was awaiting confirmation of the 83,644 crossing that had been triggered the previous week.
I noted that if we received confirmation of this crossing, the potential downside target would be $57,932.
I also mentioned that, technically, the Bitcoin market should find support on its cycle line and rebound.
The Bitcoin market 40 week cycle
Let’s examine what has transpired since then.
As anticipated, the Bitcoin market rebounded and resumed its uptrend to a new all-time high of $112,000.
The 40-week low occurred at $74,434, a few weeks earlier than expected (it was projected for May 12).
This 40-week cycle had a duration of 31 weeks, which is 7 weeks shorter than Hurst’s cycle nominal model of 38.97 weeks. Such shortened cycles are quite common during bull trends, while bear trends tend to produce longer cycles.
Why did the April crossing occur? It was likely due to market news, which typically adds volatility.
This explains why when a market crosses its cycle line and the crossing isn’t clearly defined, it’s advisable to wait for the next bar for confirmation.
The $57,932 target became invalid since the crossing wasn’t confirmed.
What can we expect next for this 40-week cycle?
The next 40-week cycle low will likely form from late December 2025 to the first week of January 2026, as indicated by the blue vertical dashed line.
Technically, as it forms its next 40-week cycle, the Bitcoin market should cross below its cycle line, providing a downside target.
We must pay special attention to when this 40-week Bitcoin market cycle peak occurs. The cycle peak is scheduled for the second week of August; if the Bitcoin market forms its peak before August, we can expect a sharp correction.
How will we know when the peak has formed?
The first indication will be when the Bitcoin market crosses below its cycle line.
The second sign will appear when Bitcoin crosses below its 40-week trend line (the blue trend line).
By analyzing lower timeframes, we can anticipate this 40-week cycle peak.
Here 40 week cycle line table, for the next few weeks and their potential target, if the Bitcoin market cross below,
The Bitcoin market 20 week cycle
Examining the 20-week cycle, the last one formed simultaneously with the last 40-week cycle on April 7. The next one is scheduled for the first two weeks of August (the green vertical dashed line). During the formation of this 20-week low, we can expect Bitcoin to cross below its cycle line, providing a downside target.
When this 20-week low is confirmed, I will draw the 20-week cycle trend line. This trend line will help identify the potential 40-week cycle peak, as a market crossing a trend line confirms that a peak or low of the next degree cycle has formed or is forming.
This is crucial information, as determining where the 40-week cycle peak will occur helps anticipate the magnitude of the next decline.
After reaching its downside target and making its low on April 7, The Bitcoin market crossed above its cycle line at $96,117 in the second week of May on its way to the next 20-week cycle peak.
This provided a new potential upside target of $117,800, representing a potential profit of $21,683 or 22%.
On May 22, The Bitcoin market reached a new all-time high of $112,000. Is this the peak of this 20-week cycle? We’ll get part of the answer by analyzing lower timeframes.
Here 20 week cycle line table, for the next 2 months and their potential target, if the Bitcoin market cross below,
The 80 day cycle
Regarding the 80-day cycle, due to Hurst’s rule of synchronicity, all cycles from the 40-week to intraday timeframes formed their lows on April 7.
After forming its low then, The Bitcoin market crossed above its cycle line at $83,684 on April 11, with a potential upside target of $92,934 (a potential profit of $9,250 or 10%). On April 22, just 11 days later, Bitcoin met and exceeded this target.
The next 80-day cycle low is expected around June 12 (the vertical purple dashed line). During this low formation, The Bitcoin market should find support at its cycle line and rebound to at least its previous high.
However, if Bitcoin clearly crosses below its cycle line, this could indicate increasing bearishness, suggesting the May 22 high might be the 20-week cycle peak.
The 40 day cycle
For the 40-day cycle, after forming its low on April 7 at $74,434, The Bitcoin market rebounded and crossed above its cycle line at $84,200 on April 19, providing an upside target of $93,966 (a potential profit of $9,766 or 11.56%). By April 23,
The Bitcoin market had met and exceeded this target. The first 40-day cycle after the major April 7 low formed on May 12. Technically, Bitcoin should have formed its low on its cycle line, but the market was so bullish that it formed well above its cycle line.
The next cycle low should form around June 16 (the blue vertical dashed line). On June 5, the market crossed below its cycle line at $103,367, with a potential target of $94,734 (a potential decline of $8,633 or 8.35%).
The 20 day cycle
Since the major low on April 7, 2025, The Bitcoin market has completed three 20-day cycles.
The most recent one occurred on May 31, with the next expected around June 17 (the green vertical dashed line).
We can expect the market to continue declining until that date, after which Bitcoin will likely rebound and cross above its cycle line, providing its first potential upside target.
The Bitcoin market roadmap
Looking at the roadmap for what we might expect through the end of August, and assuming the next 80-day low occurs on June 17, the market will likely cross above its cycle line, providing an upside target for the first 20-day cycle peak.
Then Bitcoin will decline toward its first 20-day cycle low around July 5, which should form on its cycle line.
After forming this low, Bitcoin will likely rise to form its 40-day cycle peak, then cross below its cycle line, providing a downside target for the 40-day cycle low expected around July 23.
After forming its 40-day low, Bitcoin will likely cross back above its cycle line to form its 80-day cycle peak,
Then cross below its cycle line once more as it forms its fourth and final 20-day cycle of this 80-day cycle.
Before reaching its low, the market will likely form an initial low around the first week of August, then move upward toward its cycle line (using it as resistance) before resuming its decline to form the last 20-day cycle of this 80-day cycle, which will also coincide with the 20-week cycle low around August 23.
In conclusion
The Bitcoin market trend for the next few weeks is downward. We can expect further decline over the next few weeks, at least until the first two weeks of August when the next 20-week cycle low should form.
In conclusion,
We can expect the rally to continue, reaching at least the previous all-time high. There is a very high probability the S&P 500 will achieve a new all-time high, fulfilling its various targets. The four Target to monitor are 6,183, 6,237, 6,319, and 6,859