SP500 MAY 26 2025 Update
Introduction
In my April 14 update, I was expecting the 18-month cycle bottom to form around the third week of May.
Due to recent market activity, I will begin this week’s update with the monthly cycle.
SP500:The 18 month Cycle
On April 7th, the S&P 500 reached a low of 4,835, approximately 200 points or 4.31% above its 4,639 target.
For more precise crossing points and targets, it’s better to use the 18-month cycle line equivalent on the weekly chart.
Following this low, the S&P 500 rebounded sharply.
Because of this strong rally, there is a very high probability the April 7th low was the 18-month cycle low expected in May.
If that’s the case, the 18-month cycle lasted exactly 18 months.
Three facts support this assessment:
First, the low stopped precisely on the yellow 18-month cycle trend line drawn from the 2020 low.
Second, the S&P 500 formed its low right on the support line from the previous January 2022 peak (the red horizontal line).
Third, the S&P 500 crossed back above its cycle line, confirming the previous low was at least an 18-month low.
During the low formation, the S&P 500 missed its downside 4,639 target. Does this mean Hurst cycle theory isn’t working? No, it’s simply because there was significant bullishness at that time.
When the market misses its downside target, it indicates bulls are returning and bears lack sufficient power to push prices lower. Conversely, when the market miss an upside target, bears are regaining control and bulls are too weak to push prices higher.
Thus, with high confidence, we can label the April 7 low as the 18-month cycle low.
During the rebound, the market crossed above its cycle line.
For a precise target price (since the month isn’t over), see the weekly analysis.
We can expect the new 18-month cycle peak to form around January 2026.
When this peak occurs, this will provides an important information about the size of the next correction.
If the S&P 500 peaks before December or January, we can expect a significant correction for the next 18-month cycle low. If the peak occurs after January 2026, the correction should be moderate.
The next 18-month cycle low is expected between September and October 2026. Technically, during the next 18-month correction, the S&P 500 should cross below its cycle line, providing a downside target.
On the weekly chart, all three important downside targets from my last update have been fulfilled.
The red cycle line is equivalent to the 18-month cycle line.
When the market crosses the monthly cycle line, and is the month is not over, the monthly cycle line on the weekly chart provides a more precise crossing point and target.
The target for the monthly cycle line crossing was 4,823.
On April 7, the S&P 500 bottomed at 4,835, just 12 points above the target.
During the last week of April, the S&P 500 crossed back above its cycle line at 5,509, providing a potential upside target of 6,183.
SP500:The 40 week cycle
The blue cycle line represents the 40-week cycle.
During the recent decline, the crossing below this cycle line gave a target of 5,446.
The S&P 500 meet and exceeded this target, meaning the April low was at least a 40-week cycle low.
Last week, the market traded on its cycle line.
Any crossing above this cycle line, will confirm the April 7 low was at least a 40-week cycle low, and will provide an upside target.
The next 40-week cycle peak is expected by the end of August, with the low by late December, 2025 (the blue dashed line).
SP500: The 20 weeks cycle
The green cycle line represents the 20-week cycle line.
The April 7th low meet and exceeded its target, confirming the low is part of a higher degree cycle.
This 20-week cycle lasted 16 weeks, about 3.5 weeks shorter than the Hurst nominal model’s average length of 19.48 weeks.
Cycles running shorter than average typically signal bullishness.
Last week, the S&P 500 crossed above its cycle line at 5,847, providing an upside target of 6,859—a potential 1,000-point or 17% rally.
If the S&P 500 reaches this target, it will set a new historic high.
The next 20-week peak is expected around June 15, with the low by the end of August.
We must carefully observe when and where the 20-week peak forms.
If it occurs before June 15, this signals some bearishness entering the market.
Should this happen, where the next low forms will be crucial. Technically, this 20-week cycle low should form on its cycle line and find support there.
If during the next 20-week cycle low formation, the S&P 500 crosses sharply below its cycle line, this will confirm increasing market bearishness.
SP500:The 80 day cycle
For the 80-day cycle, following the Hurst synchronicity principle, the SP500 formed its low simultaneously with the longer cycle on April 7th at 4,835. We began a new 80-day cycle on April 7, with the peak for this cycle expected around May 11. On May 19, the SP500 reached a high of 5,968 – could this be the 80-day cycle peak?
The confirmation of the 80-day peak will come from analyzing the lower timeframe, specifically the 40-day cycle. When the SP500 crosses below its 40-day cycle trend line, this will confirm the 80-day peak. Meanwhile, the next 80-day cycle low is scheduled for June 14th, and the SP500 should technically find support at its cycle line. The 80-day cycle line will be around 5,600 (the purple line). During the rebound, the SP500 crossed above its cycle line at 5,577, projecting an upside target of 6,319, which would be a new all-time high – a potential profit of 742 points or 13%.
SP500:The 40 day cycle
The last 40-day cycle occurred on April 7 with a low of 4,835. On May 1st, the SP500 crossed above its cycle line at 5,536, projecting a 6,237 target – a potential profit of 701 points or 12.66%. The blue trend line represents the 40-day cycle trend line; on May 21 the market crosses below it, confirming the 80-day cycle peak has formed on May 19. The latest 40-day cycle formed on May 7, and the next one should form on June 13. At that time, the SP500 is expected to cross below its cycle line, providing a downside target toward support at the 80-day cycle line.
SP500:The 20 day cycle
The last 20-day cycle formed on May 7. During this cycle low formation, the SP500 was expected to cross below its cycle line. However, the market made a low above its cycle line without crossing it, confirming the market’s bullish nature. On April 21, we already observed the first bullish sign: during the first 20-day cycle low formation after a major low, the market should find support at its cycle line, and the low formed above the cycle line. On April 17, the SP500 crossed above its cycle line at 5,286, projecting a 5,738 target. On May 12, the SP500 met this target for a profit of 452 points in 25 days, or an 8% gain. The next two 20-day cycle lows are expected on May 24 and June 12. During the formation of these two cycle lows, the S&P 500 should be below its cycle line.
In conclusion,
We can expect the rally to continue, reaching at least the previous all-time high. There is a very high probability the S&P 500 will achieve a new all-time high, fulfilling its various targets. The four Target to monitor are 6,183- 6,237- 6,319- and 6,859