Gold Price Forecast 2026:
Hurst Cycle Analysis Predicts Major Turn – Next Bottom February 3rd
Introduction
In my last update, I explained the idea of dual analysis for the gold market.
This week we will focus only on the bottom analysis,
if you want more details about the dual analysis,
I suggest watching my previous gold update.
In this week’s update for the week of January 12, 2026, we explore a defining moment for the Gold market. Following a near-record high of $4,581.30 in late December, technical indicators suggest we may be approaching the summit of the current 18-month cycle.
Using advanced Hurst Cycle analysis, this post breaks down the hierarchy of market cycles driving price action. We examine the interplay between the 18-month, 40-week, and shorter-term 80-day cycles to forecast the next major move. Specifically, we discuss the significance of the VTL (Valid Trend Line) and FLD indicators; if prices cross below these key thresholds, it could confirm not just an 18-month top, but potentially the peak of the larger 54-month cycle.
We also analyze the recent volatility attributed to geopolitical news and explain why technical cycles remain the more reliable predictor of market lows and highs. Whether you are a long-term investor or a short-term trader, this analysis provides the specific dates and price targets
Let’s begin with the 18-Month Cycle
The top for this 18 month cycle is expected around April or May 2026,
if the gold market reaches its top before April, then this would be the first warning sign, of possible weakness for the long term gold market.
For the long term view, the V T L and the F L D are the two important tools to watch, in fact, any drop below either of them, will confirm the 18 month cycle top has happened.
For the 18 month cycle top formation, we will see some early clues by studying the shorter cycles.
By dropping below the F L D or the V T L, the gold market will tell us two different things,
When the gold market drops below the F L D, this will confirm the top of the 18 month cycle,
By dropping below the V T L, this will confirm the start of the next bigger cycle, in this case the 54 month cycle,
This will be very useful information to understand the size of the upcoming decline.
In fact according to the Hurst principles, when prices drop below the V T L,
This confirms the top of the next bigger cycle has happened,
the next bigger longer cycle after the 18 month is the 54 month.
The bottom for the current 18 month cycle is expected between December 2026 and January 2027.
At the time of the expected bottom the gold market should at least reach its F L D, the yellow line.
With the chance to drop below, with a potential downward target, if the top is confirmed to be the 54 month cycle,
Now let’s see the next shorter cycle the 40 week.
The 40-Week Cycle
From the long term view, the 40 week cycle will help us to spot the next possible 18 month cycle top,
Like I said above, when the gold market drops below the 40 week V T L, the blue upward trend line,
this will confirm the 18 month cycle top has happened or is happening,
The top for the current 40 week peak was expected by the end of December 2025,
On December 29 the gold market reached a $4,581.30 high,
Only $2.70 away from the December 22 week $4,584 record high,
Is this the 40 week top?
We will find out by looking at the shorter cycles,
the bottom for this 40 week cycle is expected around the first week of March 2026,
At the time of its bottom formation, the gold market should find support at its FLD, which will be around $4,460.
If the gold market drops below its cycle line during the next bottom formation,
Then this could be the first clue of the possible 18 month cycle top.
The 20-Week Cycle
The low point of $3,901.30 on October 28 was the last 20-week cycle low point.
The next low point is expected during the first week of March 2026,
shown by the vertical green dashed line.
As I mentioned during the 40-week cycle analysis,
gold reached an all-time high of $4,584 in December 22 week, and another high of $4,581.30 in December 29 week, right on the time target.
There is a possibility that this was the peak of the 20-week cycle.
When the gold market drops below its V T L (a key trend line),
this will confirm that the 20-week and 40-week cycle peaks have formed.
When this happens, we can also expect the gold market to drop below its F L D (another important reference line),
giving us a potential price target for how far down it might go.
The price should find a support level around the 40-week cycle line, which is the same as the F L D.
On the top right on the graphique, there is a table showing the cycle lines for the next 8 weeks,
and their potential price targets if gold drops below them.
These targets are calculated from the December 22 all-time high.
If gold makes a new all-time high before dropping below its cycle line,
the targets will be recalculated according to Hurst’s rules.
The 80 Day Cycle
Is the $121 January 5 rally because of the Venezuela situation?
That was the official reason given for gold’s price jump.
People worried the crisis might spread, so they bought gold.
Like I’ve said in previous updates,
news doesn’t actually create market movements.
News just adds some price swings – in this case about a 3% move –
or shifts the timing of cycles by a few days, weeks, or months, depending on which timeframe we’re watching.
But when a cycle is ready to complete, the expected low will happen regardless.
The reality is we already knew a low was coming around that time.
In fact, during my last update, the 80 day cycle low was predicted for October 27.
The actual low happened on October 28, just 1 day off.
Adding 68 days to October 28 gives us January 3, 2026,
as the next expected 80 day cycle low.
The actual low formed on December 31, 4 days before the January 5 rally.
68 days is the average length for the 80 day cycle, in the Hurst nominal model.
Following and trading these cycles’ works very well and is quite accurate.
Also, when the December 31 low was forming,
gold’s price dropped below its 40 day cycle trend line (called the V T L – shown as the purple dotted line).
The next 80 day cycle low is scheduled for March 9 (marked by the vertical purple dashed line).
After gold formed its last 80 day cycle low,
I drew the 80 day cycle V T L (the purple solid upward line) from the December low.
When the next 80 day cycle low forms,
gold should drop below this line.
This will confirm that the peak before crossing the V T L, will be at least the 20 week cycle peak, and very likely the 40 week cycle peak as well.
It should also cross below its cycle line, which gives us a potential target for how far prices might fall.
This will also be the fourth and final 80 day cycle within the 40 week cycle.
The 40 Day cycle
Following Hurst’s synchronicity rules, the most recent 40 day cycle bottom, happened at the same time as the 80 day bottom on December 31, 2025.
The next 40 day bottom is expected to occur on February 3.
Because gold prices remain very strong, gold is currently trading above its 40 day cycle line.
Normally, gold prices should drop below this cycle line when the next 40 day cycle bottom forms, which would give us a potential price target for how low it might go.
There is the cycle line leading up to January 23, on the top left of the chart showing the potential downside price target when gold drops below it.
Keep in mind, these targets are calculated from December’s record high price.
If gold reaches a new record high before dropping below its cycle line,
the targets will be recalculated according to Hurst’s rules.
The top for the current 40 day cycle is expected to form around January 17.
When gold drops below its cycle trend line or VTL, this will confirm that both the 40 day cycle peak and the 80 day cycle peak have formed.
The 20 Day Cycle
As mentioned in the 40 day analysis, due to the same synchronicity rule, the most recent 20 day cycle bottom occurred on December 31, 2025.
The next one is expected on January 18.
The last 20 day bottom formed right at its cycle line.
The next one should drop below its cycle line, giving us a potential downside price target.
Since the 40 and 20 week cycles are starting their downward phases, there’s a possibility that when the January 18 bottom forms, gold will drop below its cycle line.
This would be an early warning sign that the 40 week, 20 week, and 80 day peaks have likely formed.
The success tables.
For the last 3 years, I’ve shared tables showing how well, different markets performed using my tracking method.
The tables demonstrate very high accuracy, when trading various markets by following their cycles.
The success rate indicates how often the market reaches or goes beyond its expected goal, which appears when the market moves above or below its cycle line or the F L D.
When using the various trading indicators, and to achieve great results,
we need to consider whether the signal matches the overall trend direction or not.
In fact, it’s not recommended, unless in special situations, to trade in the opposite direction of the main trend.
This year, I chose to display the 2023, 2024, and 2025 tables together to demonstrate, how reliable these successful signals have been over time.
On the table for each cycle, there are different cycles I track for each
market.
On this year’s 2025 table, I included more information, you’ll see the total count of signals, the count of successful signals, (meaning signals that reached or surpassed their goals), and the unsuccessful column, shows how many times the market fell short of its goals.
For a goal to count as reached, the market needs to come within 1% of the target – I accept a 1% margin for error.
How should we use the table?
Traders can select which market to trade, and which cycle to follow based on that cycle’s success rate.
Keep in mind that future results may not necessarily match past results, depending on each trader’s approach.
Conclusion
This comprehensive cycle analysis reveals that gold is approaching several critical junctures that will determine the market’s direction for months to come. While the long-term 18-month cycle top isn’t expected until April-May 2026, shorter-term cycles suggest we may see significant price action in the coming weeks.
The convergence of multiple cycle bottoms in late January through early February—specifically January 18 and February 3—creates important inflection points for traders. When gold crosses below key VTL trend lines, it will confirm cycle peaks have formed and activate specific downside targets calculated using Hurst’s proven methodology.
The success rate tables presented demonstrate that this cycle-based approach has delivered consistent, reliable signals across multiple markets over the past three years. By understanding when cycles are likely to turn and confirming these turns with technical breaks below cycle lines or the FLD, traders can position themselves with high-probability setups rather than reacting emotionally to news headlines.
As we’ve seen with the Venezuela news example, market-moving events tend to occur precisely when cycles are ready to turn anyway. The discipline of cycle analysis removes emotion from trading decisions and provides objective reference points for entries, exits, and risk management. Continue monitoring these cycle dates and technical levels to navigate the gold market successfully in 2026.