“Gold Price Forecast 2025-2029:
Professional Cycle Analysis & Trading Signals |Market Cycles Trading”
Introduction
Welcome to our weekly gold cycle market analysis.
Since my September 22 update, gold has rallied an impressive $571, representing a remarkable 16% gain. This significant movement confirms our previous analysis and sets the stage for what could be an exciting period ahead. In today’s comprehensive analysis, we’ll explore multiple scenarios and examine which outcome appears most likely for the coming months. We’ll dive deep into various cycle analyses to provide you with actionable insights.
Let’s begin with the 18-month cycle analysis.
The Gold market 18 month cycle.
In my September 22 update, I presented two possible scenarios for gold’s trajectory. The rally following August’s low has confirmed that the August bottom indeed marked the 18-month cycle low, as validated through our short-term cycle analysis from that same update.
Looking ahead for the current 18-month cycle, I anticipate the peak to form between March and April 2026, with the subsequent low expected in January 2027. When the next 18-month cycle low begins forming, gold should decline at least to its cycle line, represented by the yellow line on the charts.
The timing of this 18-month cycle peak formation is crucial for maintaining the bullish trend. For continued upward momentum, gold must form its peak after April 2026. Should the peak occur before March, this would signal the first sign of potential weakness in the longer-term trend.
By continuously analyzing shorter cycles, we’ll obtain more precise information regarding the 18-month cycle peak formation, enabling better trading decisions.
The yellow trend line represents the 18-month cycle trendline, or VTL (Valid Trend Line). This VTL helps us identify early signs of the 18-month cycle peak and the formation of the next higher cycle peak—the 54-month cycle.
Gold characteristically forms sharp peaks and rounded bottoms. In the 1970s, Hurst noted that gold markets synchronize through their peaks. As mentioned in previous updates, peak analysis proves extremely valuable for gold, making dual analysis—both peak and trough analysis—highly beneficial.
The Gold Market Peak Analysis.
This week, I’m introducing peak analysis to our methodology. We’ll start with the 18-year cycle first. In gold markets, the 18-year cycle in peak analysis averages between 16 and 18 years.
Let’s examine the first major 20th-century peak of 1980, when gold reached $873.
The first 18-year cycle formed its peak in 1996 at $419.
The second 18-year cycle peak occurred in 2011 with a $1,923 high.
This cycle lasted 15 years, shorter than Hurst’s nominal model suggests.
Adding 18 years to the 2011 peak gives us 2029 as the target date for the third and final cycle, completing the 54-year cycle.
According to Hurst’s nominal model, the 54-year cycle maintains a 3-to-1 ratio with the 18-year cycle.
For more precise time targets, we examine the next lower cycle of approximately 8 years. Within one 18-year cycle, the ratio becomes 2-to-1, meaning two 9-year cycles exist within each 18-year cycle.
From September 2011, the next 8-year cycle peak should have occurred around 2019. The actual peak formed in August 2020, exactly 8 years and 11 months later—nearly 9 years as expected.
From the August 2020 peak, using monthly scaling, the next peak occurred in March 2022 at $2,078. This cycle lasted 19 months.
The following peak formed in December 2023 with a $2,152 high, lasting 21 months.
The final 18-month cycle of this 54-month cycle peaked in April 2025 at $3,509. This peak also represented the 4.5-year cycle peak.
The average length for 18-month cycles within this 54-month cycle was 19.3 months—just 1.3 months longer than the 18-month average, respecting the Hurst nominal model discovered in 1970’s.
Now, let’s forecast the next 54-month and 18-year cycle peaks.
The first 18-month cycle peak should form around October 2026,
the second in May 2028, and the final one in December 2029. This provides a roadmap for approximately the next three years. However, this doesn’t mean gold will move straight up to 2029, constantly making new all-time highs.
For trading purposes, daily cycles or medium-term weekly cycles prove more practical. Speaking of weekly cycles, let’s examine what the 40-week cycle reveals.
The Gold Market 40 week cycle.
According to Hurst’s rule of synchronicity, the August 20 low marked not only the 18-month low but also the low for all shorter cycles, including the 40-week cycle.
The next 40-week cycle low should form in mid-May 2026, with the peak expected by late December 2025.
During the next low formation, gold should find support at its cycle line or FLD (Future Line of Demarcation), shown as the blue line. Currently, it’s too early to determine where this cycle line will be at that date.
The blue uptrend line represents the 40-week cycle trendline or VTL. When the gold market crosses sharply below this line, it will confirm not only that the 40-week cycle peak has formed but also that the 18-month peak has formed or is forming.
Due to gold’s extremely bullish nature, the 40-week cycle hasn’t provided trading signals and offers limited value from a trading perspective.
The 20 week cycle.
Examining the 20-week cycle, the last low formed on August 20, coinciding with the 40-week cycle low.
The next low should occur by late December, marked by the green vertical dashed line. At that time, gold should find support at its cycle line, which will be approximately $4,300.
After forming its December low, gold should rebound toward forming its 40-week cycle peak, then decline and cross below its cycle line, providing a potential downside target.
Again, due to the very bullish trend, the 20-week cycle hasn’t provided trading signals on a weekly basis since 2023.
The green uptrend line represents the 20-week cycle trend line. When gold crosses below this line, it will confirm not only the 20-week cycle peak but also that the 40-week peak has formed or is forming—providing valuable information for traders.
The 80 day cycle.
For the 80-day cycle, we encounter the same situation regarding trading signals—gold remains too bullish to provide clear signals. As of Friday, October 17, 58 days have passed, requiring 10 more days to complete this 80-day cycle.
The low should form on October 27, marked by the purple vertical dashed line.
Friday’s $4,392 level likely represents this 80-day cycle’s peak. Technically, at the first 80-day low formation after a major low, markets should find support at their cycle line. However, given the substantial bullishness and the peak forming in the cycle’s right portion, there’s high probability the market will form its low above the cycle line.
On October 27, the cycle line will be at $3,650, suggesting a potential 17% decline. For the reasons mentioned above, and since this is only the first 80-day cycle from the major low, such a decline seems highly unlikely.
The 40 day cycle.
After the August 20 low, gold formed its first 40-day cycle low on September 18. This cycle lasted 29 days—5 days shorter than the 34-day average discovered by Hurst in the 1970s. The second 40-day cycle should form on October 22.
Technically, markets should cross below their cycle line, but given gold’s bullish momentum, we can expect the market to form its low well above the cycle line.
conclusion.
Gold’s bullish momentum continues across multiple timeframes, with cycle analysis pointing toward sustained strength through 2029. While short-term cycles suggest minor corrections ahead, the overall trajectory remains positive. Traders should focus on daily cycles for entries while keeping the bigger picture in mind.