Bitcoin Market $126K All-Time High Analysis: 18-Month Cycle Peak Confirmed – Next Price Targets Revealed
Introduction
Bitcoin’s market cycles provide valuable insights for investors seeking to understand price movements and potential trends. By analyzing various cycle lengths—from 18-month patterns down to 40-day fluctuations—we can identify key turning points and establish realistic price targets. This comprehensive analysis examines Bitcoin’s recent performance following the October 6 all-time high of $126,272, exploring multiple timeframes to forecast future market direction. Understanding these cyclical patterns, along with support and resistance levels defined by cycle lines and trend indicators, helps traders make informed decisions in this volatile market environment.
In my September 29 update, I anticipated the 18-month cycle peak would form in September. However, after publishing my update, Bitcoin rallied to establish a new all-time high at $126,272 on October 6. Given recent market activity, we can now confirm that the October 6 high represents the 18-month cycle peak. Let’s examine what we can expect from Bitcoin over the coming months.
The 18-Month Cycle Analysis
Since we’ve identified $126,272 as the 18-month cycle peak, we can project that the cycle low will form near its cycle line (also called the FLD or Future Line of Demarcation) around $85,000.
This level aligns with the 18-month trend-line, known as the VTL (Valid Trend Line). The time target remains February 2026.
Despite the decline from the October 6 high, Bitcoin Market maintains a long-term bullish outlook. The market continues trading above both its cycle line and 18-month VTL.
A decisive break below these levels would be extremely bearish and would confirm that the peak preceding such a break represents at least a 54-month (or 4.5-year) cycle top.
The November low of $98,898 found support at the cycle line, suggesting a short-term rally is possible before the market resumes its decline.
We’ll gain better clarity by examining shorter-term cycles.
The 40-Week Cycle Perspective
We must adjust the 40-week cycle peak from August 14 to the October 6 all-time high of $126,272.
Since forming this peak, Bitcoin Market has entered a correction phase and last week found support at its cycle line.
The anticipated low for this 40-week cycle remains mid-January 2026, marked by the blue vertical dashed line on our charts. Technically, Bitcoin Market should cross below its cycle line, which would provide a potential downside target.
The accompanying table on the chart shows various cycle lines and their corresponding targets if Bitcoin Market crosses below in the coming weeks.
The blue trend-line represents the 40-week VTL, and we need to monitor Bitcoin’s market reaction carefully as it approaches this level.
The $125,882 upside target triggered during the first week of May was reached during the October 6 peak formation.
With two trading signals on this 40-week cycle—one positive in May and one negative in March—the success rate stands at 50%.
The 20-Week Cycle Bitcoin Market
The previous 20-week cycle low occurred during the week of September 1 at $107,220. At that time, Bitcoin found support on its cycle line.
During the third week of October, the market crossed below its cycle line at $115,774, providing a potential downside target of $105,276—representing $10,498 or 9.06% potential downside. Bitcoin reached this target during the same week, then rallied to find resistance at the cycle line before resuming its decline toward forming the next and final 20-week cycle within this 18-month period.
Understanding the 18-Month Roadmap
This week, I’m introducing the 18-month roadmap for the Bitcoin Market, which uses the 20-week cycle line to illustrate how cycles function together.
Point zero represents the last 18-month cycle low.
The blue line shows Bitcoin’s Market price behavior when three combined cycles (the 20-week, 40-week, and 18-month cycles) align, representing ideal price action in a balanced market.
The red dashed line indicates the 20-week cycle line (FLD). For detailed information about roadmap construction and cycle line building, I’ve already published comprehensive articles explaining cycle mechanics on this website.
Looking at the roadmap details:
Point zero in the bottom left marks where the last 18-month cycle formed its low. After establishing a $54,014 low on August 5, 2024, the market crossed above its 20-week cycle line at $64,584, providing a potential $75,154 upside target.
Bitcoin Market formed its first 20-week cycle peak in December 2024 with a $108,364 high, meeting and exceeding the target by over 44%—a very bullish signal.
Bitcoin Market then declined toward its first 20-week cycle low.
Technically, the market should have found support at the cycle line before bouncing toward the 40-week cycle peak.
However, as explained in previous updates, Bitcoin was so bullish that it formed its first low well above the cycle line at $89,164.
It then rebounded to form the 40-week peak in January 2025 at $109,356.
After forming the second 20-week peak, markets typically cross back below the cycle line, providing a downside target.
This crossing occurred at $96,500, targeting $83,644. On April 7, Bitcoin Market formed a $74,434 low, surpassing the target.
Technically, after the second 40-week low in balanced markets, Bitcoin should cross back above its cycle line, providing the final upside target for the entire cycle. Bitcoin crossed at $96,117, targeting $117,800. On October 6, Bitcoin reached a historic new high of $126,272, again exceeding the target.
This peak also represents the 18-month cycle peak.
Following this major peak, Bitcoin crossed below its cycle line at $115,774, providing a downside target of $105,276.
On October 17, Bitcoin reached a low of $103,530, just $1,700 below the target. As expected, the market rebounded toward the cycle line at $116,381 without crossing above, using it as resistance before resuming the decline toward the last 20-week cycle low, which will complete the 18-month cycle.
Note that roadmaps can be constructed for any cycle length, from 10-day cycles up to 18-month cycles and beyond.
With three positive trading signals, the 20-week cycle maintains a 100% success rate.
The 80-Day Cycle Analysis
In my September update, I expected the 80-day cycle peak around October 4. Bitcoin formed its peak at $126,272 on October 6, only two days later than anticipated.
Returning to the last 80-day cycle low on September 1: I mentioned in that update that after forming the second 80-day cycle, the market should cross back above its cycle line and provide a new upside target.
As expected, on October 1, Bitcoin crossed above the cycle line at $115,761, targeting $124,252. This target was met on October 5, one day before officially forming the third 80-day cycle peak.
For the third and fourth cycles, the market should cross below the cycle line and remain below until the 80-day cycle completes.
On October 16, the market crossed below at $112,471, targeting $98,666.
With the November 4 low of $98,898, Bitcoin met this target.
Since the last 80-day cycle low, 65 days have passed, suggesting a high probability that November 4 was indeed the third 80-day cycle low. This low was expected on November 9, so if correct, it formed five days early.
What’s next for the fourth 80-day cycle?
We can expect the market to rebound toward its cycle line and use it as resistance before resuming the decline toward the fourth and final 80-day cycle of the second 40-week cycle within the 18-month cycle.
If Bitcoin follows the Hurst nominal model, we can expect this low around January 10, 2026 (marked by the vertical purple dashed line).
When Bitcoin crosses back above its cycle line, we’ll have confirmation that the 80-day cycle low has formed.
The purple upward trend-line represents the 80-day VTL.
By crossing below it, Bitcoin confirmed that the October 6 high represents the peak for the 80-day, 20-week, 40-week, and 18-month cycles.
This year, with eight trading signals (seven positive and one negative), the success rate stands at 87.50%.
The 40-Day Cycle Update
We can identify the October 10 low as the 40-day cycle low.
The next low was projected for November 13, but if November 4 represents the 80-day cycle low, then by Hurst’s rule of synchronicity, it also marks the 40-day low. Assuming this is correct, we can expect the next 40-day low around December 8.
Of course, if the 80-day low hasn’t formed yet, we’ll add 34 days to that low to establish the next 40-day cycle time target.
On October 2, Bitcoin reached its $121,003 target, which was triggered on September 11 when the market crossed above the cycle line.
This target was met four days before the October 6 all-time high.
On October 10, Bitcoin crossed below the cycle line at $116,325, providing a downside target of $106,378. With the October 17 low of $103,530, Bitcoin met and exceeded this target.
With nine positive trading signals out of ten since the beginning of the year, the 40-day cycle maintains a 90% success rate.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s cyclical analysis confirms the October 6 peak at $126,272 as a significant turning point across multiple timeframes.
The market’s consistent interaction with cycle lines and achievement of projected targets demonstrates the reliability of these analytical tools.
With success rates ranging from 50% to 100% across different cycle lengths, traders have valuable frameworks for anticipating future price movements.
As Bitcoin navigates toward the projected February 2026 low around $85,000, monitoring cycle line crosses and VTL interactions remains crucial for timing entries and exits in this dynamic market.