"Bitcoin Market Cycle Analysis: April 7 2025
Introduction
My last Bitcoin Market Cycle Analysis was published on March 10, 2025. Since it’s been almost a month since that assessment, this week I’ll begin by examining the weekly cycles.
The 40-Week Cycle
During the week of March 24, the Bitcoin market traded on its 40-week cycle line. Last week, the market crossed below this critical cycle line at $83,644, establishing a potential target of $57,932. If Bitcoin confirms this crossing this week, there exists a possibility of a $25,712 decline, representing approximately 30% downside risk.
When the Bitcoin market crossed below its 20-week cycle trend line, this confirmed that the January 20 peak of $109,356 was indeed the 40-week cycle peak. At that juncture, we could anticipate the Bitcoin market dropping at minimum to its 40-week cycle line.
Given this is the first 40-week cycle since the last 18-month cycle completion in August 2024, technically the Bitcoin market should find support at its cycle line. However, if the market fails to rebound this week and reclaim territory above its cycle line, then the $57,932 target must be seriously considered.
To accurately identify when the 40-week cycle concludes, we must examine shorter timeframes.
The 20-Week Cycle
The previous 20-week cycle target of $83,644, triggered during the week of February 10, 2025, was achieved two weeks later when Bitcoin established a low of $78,197 on February 24.
The prior 20-week cycle formed a low during the week of January 6 and lasted 18 weeks, aligning perfectly with the weekly average in the Hurst nominal model. If the current 20-week cycle maintains similar duration, we can project the next 20-week low forming during the week of May 12, which would also represent, according to Hurst’s rule of synchronicity, the 40-week cycle low.
The 80-Day Cycle
The last 80-day cycle completed on January 13. The subsequent 80-day cycle low is most likely the $76,600 low established on March 11. Technically, after forming an 80-day cycle low, the Bitcoin market should cross above its cycle line and provide an upside target.
On April 2, Bitcoin encountered formidable resistance at its cycle line. The January low was 61 days ago, and according to the Hurst nominal model, the average duration for an 80-day cycle is 68 days. If March 11 marks the 80-day low, then this cycle was 7 days shorter than average.
However, if the 80-day low is forming now (Thursday, April 3), the cycle length would be 84 days – slightly extended but not improbable given the market’s downtrend. As a reminder, cycles typically run longer in downtrends compared to uptrends.
If the March 11 low represents the 80-day cycle low and Bitcoin fails to cross above its cycle line, then the potential 40-week cycle target becomes increasingly plausible. Since the last crossing on February 19, we haven’t received new trading signals, highlighting the importance of analyzing shorter timeframes.
With two signals – one successful and one unsuccessful – the success rate stands at 50%. Currently, March 11 remains the strongest candidate for the 80-day cycle low, which would place the next one around May 18.
The 40 day cycle.
On March 31, Bitcoin crossed above its cycle line at $82,509, generating an upside target of $88,418 – representing potential profit of $5,909 or 7.16%.
This crossing confirmed the March 11 low as at least a 40-day cycle low. Since this marks the second 40-day cycle since the January 9 low, it further validates March 11 as the 80-day cycle low. This demonstrates the importance of examining shorter timeframes to confirm longer cycles – Hurst theory functions like a puzzle where all components must fit together coherently.
With an $88,563 high on April 2, Bitcoin fulfilled its $88,418 target. The next 40-day cycle low is anticipated around April 14, plus or minus two days.
The 40-day cycle has achieved three successful trading signals, maintaining a 100% success rate.
The 20-Day Cycle
On March 19, Bitcoin crossed above its cycle line at $83,980, establishing a potential upside target of $91,270. This crossing confirmed the March 11 low as at least a 20-day cycle low. This particular 20-day cycle low had been scheduled for March 6 (referenced in my March update), occurring 5 days later than expected – a normal deviation during downtrends.
On March 24, Bitcoin formed its 20-day peak with a high of $88,772. The $81,287 low on March 31 almost certainly represents the 20-day cycle low, occurring after Bitcoin crossed below its cycle line at $83,600, indicating a downside target of $78,428.
Crossing below the cycle line before reaching its upside target invalidated that target and confirmed the market’s bearish posture. A second bearish indicator emerged when Bitcoin crossed below its cycle line before forming its 20-day low. In bullish markets, the first 20-day low following an 80-day low typically finds support at the cycle line.
The next 20-day low is expected around April 18, plus or minus two days.
With three successful signals out of five, the 20-day cycle maintains a 60% success rate.
The Bitcoins market The 10-Day Cycle
From the February 28 low at $78,197, which marked a 10-day cycle low, Bitcoin crossed above its cycle line on March 2 at $88,230, generating an upside target of $98,263. The same day, Bitcoin reached a high of $95,152, falling short of its target.
The following day, Bitcoin declined with exceptional volatility. On March 7, it crossed below its 10-day cycle line at $88,677, projecting a downside target of $82,202. With a low of $76,600 on March 11, Bitcoin established an 80-day low.
On March 14, Bitcoin crossed above its cycle line at $84,095, triggering a $91,590 target. The first 10-day cycle low since the last 80-day low formed as expected at its cycle line on March 18. The March 24 high missed its target, further confirming the market’s bearish sentiment.
As anticipated, Bitcoin crossed below its cycle line on his way to the second 10-day cycle. This crossing occurred at $85,437 on March 29, generating a downside target of $82,102. One week later on March 31, Bitcoin reached a low of $81,287, meeting this target.
Technically, after forming its second 10-day cycle low, Bitcoin should cross back above its cycle line and establish a potential upside target. However, given the pervasive bearishness in the Bitcoin market, it may use its cycle line as resistance and continue its decline.
The 10-day cycle has produced five successful signals out of seven, yielding a 71.43% success rate.
Conclusion
May 18 represents the expected date for the 40-week cycle to form a low. The price target sits at $57,932, which would position Bitcoin precisely on its 18-month cycle line. This would represent a 47% decline from the all-time high of $109,356.
This target requires vigilant monitoring – any sharp crossing below this level could precipitate further decline.