Bitcoin Cycle Analysis December 2025:
18-Month Cycle Low Prediction, $73,408 Price Target & Hurst Cycles Explained
Introduction
The Bitcoin market has experienced significant volatility recently, dropping from its October all-time high of $126,272 to a November 21 low of $80,537—a decline of $45,735 or 38.21%. Despite this substantial correction, Bitcoin continues trading above its cycle trend line, the VTL. The critical question facing traders today is whether we should expect further decline or if the 18-month cycle low is approaching. This update will analyze multiple time cycles to answer this essential question.
The 18 Month Cycle
In my November 10 update, I mentioned we could expect this 18-month cycle to form its low around its cycle line by February 2026, at approximately $85,000.
Last month, the Bitcoin cycle line was at $99,840, and the November median price was $95,830.
Since the median price crossed below its cycle line, we now have a downside trading signal. The crossing occurred at $99,840, providing a potential downside target of $73,408. This target sits below the cycle trend line or VTL.
What does this mean for the longer-term picture?
Even if the Bitcoin market reaches this $73,408 target, it doesn’t necessarily indicate a very bearish trend for the next 18 months.
We must watch carefully how the Bitcoin market reacts if it reaches this target. If Bitcoin rebounds sharply and crosses back above both its cycle trend line (VTL) and its cycle line (FLD), this would raise the possibility that the 18-month cycle low has formed.
However, if Bitcoin doesn’t cross back above both lines immediately and continues declining, there’s a high probability that the $126,272 high represents the 54-month cycle peak. In that case, we can expect further decline for the Bitcoin market, possibly down to the 54-month cycle line (the red line).
Since there’s a very high probability that the last 54-month cycle low formed in November 2022, and the current 18-month cycle is the second one from that date, this bearish scenario remains unlikely for now, though not impossible.
The most probable scenario is that Bitcoin may drop very quickly to its VTL, find support there, and possibly reach the $73,408 target before rallying back very strongly.
This would occur on its way to the third 18-month cycle peak of this 54-month cycle. Bitcoin may also miss its $73,408 target entirely, which would be a very bullish sign.
40 weeks Cycle
In my last update, I was expecting the Bitcoin market to cross below its cycle line during the formation of this cycle low, scheduled for mid-January 2026.
During the same week as my update publication, the Bitcoin market crossed below its cycle line at $103,800, providing a potential downside target of $81,328—a decline of $22,472 or 21.64%.
The following week on November 21, the Bitcoin market formed a low of $80,537,
Meeting and exceeding his target, and crossing below its cycle trend line (VTL), confirming that the $126,272 high is at least an 18-month peak.
The first 40-week cycle in April 2025, following the August 2024 18-month cycle, was 35 weeks long—shorter by 3.9 weeks from the Hurst nominal model.
From there, two possibilities exist for the current 40-week cycle.
If the second 40-week cycle has the same length as the first one, we can expect this 40-week low to form during the second week of December.
The second possibility is maintaining the Hurst nominal average of 38.9 weeks, meaning the second 40-week cycle should be 42 weeks long and should form its low during the third week in January.
With two positive trading signals out of three, the 40-week cycle has a 66.66% success rate.
20 weeks
As mentioned in last month’s update, the previous 20-week cycle formed its low during the week of September 1, forming its 20-week peak on the October 6 week. The week later, Bitcoin crossed below its cycle trend line, confirming that $126,272 is at least the 40-week cycle peak.
However, by analyzing the 40-week cycle, we also have confirmation that this peak is a major peak.
The last 20-week cycle was 21 weeks long, slightly longer by almost 2 weeks than the Hurst nominal model of 19.48 weeks.
Applying the same length for the current 20-week cycle, the low should form during the third week of January. January is an important month for the potential formation of this major low.
With three positive signals and zero negative signals, the success rate is 100%.
As a reminder, the success rate refers to the accuracy of the Bitcoin market in meeting or exceeding its targets based on price movements crossing its cycle line or FLD. These crossings can occur on either the upside or downside.
The 80 Day Cycle
The 80-day cycle is an important cycle to follow for short-term traders. I personally place the last 80-day cycle low on November 21.
This 80-day cycle is 81 days long, which is slightly long for an 80-day cycle but not impossible.
As a reminder, the Hurst nominal model shows an average length of 68 days for the 80-day cycle. However, it’s not uncommon in bear markets or downtrends to have longer cycles than the Hurst nominal model. Usually in bull trends, cycles tend to run shorter, while in bear trends they typically run longer.
After its November 21 low, as expected, Bitcoin rebounded and crossed above its 20-day cycle line, (see the chart on the top right corner). The crossing occurred on December 2 at $88,068, providing a potential upside target of $95,600.
On December 9, the Bitcoin market should form its first 20-day low. Technically at that time, Bitcoin should form its low on its 20-day cycle, with the 20-day cycle line around $91,000 on December 9.
At the time of the next 20-day cycle low formation, it’s very important that the Bitcoin market finds support on its 20-day cycle line. If it crosses sharply below it, we can expect further decline, perhaps reaching the $73,408 18-month target.
Knowing where Bitcoin will form its first cycle low since November 21 will be crucial for the rest of the trend.
This will be a very important indicator of how much bearishness remains in the Bitcoin market.
If the current 80-day cycle follows the Hurst nominal model, we expect a low during the last week of January 2026. If it has the same length as the first one, we can expect the market to form a low in mid-February.
However, very often when a cycle is long, a shorter one follows to match the Hurst nominal model. If that’s correct, we can expect a low for mid-January 2026.
A crossing above its 80-day cycle line will be an important signal. Since there are eight 80-day cycles in an 18-month cycle, and the current one is the last one, according to the Hurst rule of synchronicity, any sharp crossing above its 80-day cycle line will confirm that the 18-month cycle low has formed and Bitcoin will start a new bull trend.
Since the beginning of the year, the 80-day cycle has seven positive signals and one negative, yielding an 87.50% success rate.
The 40 Day Cycle
Since the last 40-day cycle low was on November 21, we can expect the next one to form on December 25. Technically, the peak for this cycle is expected to form on December 10, but since the trend is down, there’s a very high probability the market will form its peak before that date. A crossing above its cycle line will provide a potential upside target and will also be the first sign that some bullish traders are returning to the Bitcoin market.
While this is possible to occur, it remains unlikely for now. I believe it’s a bit too early for this to happen. I personally expect the Bitcoin market to cross above its 40-day cycle line between the end of January and the third week of February 2026.
At that time, a crossing above its cycle line will be the first sign that the 18-month low may have formed. With nine positive trading signals out of ten since the beginning of the year, the success rate of the 40-day cycle is 90%.
Conclusion
The Bitcoin market is at a critical juncture with multiple cycle lows potentially forming between now and February 2026. The most probable scenario suggests Bitcoin may decline to its VTL or possibly the $73,408 target before rallying strongly.
Key dates to watch include December 9 for the 20-day cycle low and mid-January through February for the 18-month cycle low formation.
The market’s reaction at these support levels will determine whether we’ve seen the bottom or if further decline awaits.