“Bitcoin Market Cycle Analysis: Decoding the $124,517 Peak and Future Market Trajectory”
Introduction:
Following a two-week off, I’m resuming my weekly market analysis. My previous Bitcoin assessment was published July 21, when I anticipated the 20-week cycle peak formation imminently—let’s examine subsequent developments.
Bitcoin Market: 18 month cycle
Regarding the extended timeframe perspective, the 18-month cycle maintains exceptionally bullish momentum with the peak anticipated this month. August 14 witnessed Bitcoinm Market establishing a unprecedented $124,517 all-time high. Could this August 14 pinnacle represent the 18-month cycle culmination? Certainty requires comprehensive analysis across multiple timeframe layers.
Should the August summit constitute the 18-month cycle peak, it materialized precisely on target and cycle apex timing. As emphasized in my previous assessment, the 18-month cycle peak location provides crucial intelligence for future trajectory analysis. September or October peaks would signal moderate correction patterns.
I anticipate the subsequent correction concluding by February 2026, discovering support along its cycle trajectory, approximately $85,000. We’ll monitor carefully whether Bitcoin discovers support on its cycle line, or penetrates below. Sharp downward penetration could trigger potential downside objectives near $45,500.
Before seriously considering this scenario, the Bitcoin Market must also breach its V.T.L., confirming the previous high represents at minimum a 54-month cycle peak. From trading perspectives, the 18-month cycle offers limited utility, merely indicating subsequent trend direction.
Bitcoin Market: 40 week cycle
Examining the 40-week cycle reveals the latest trading signal occurred during May’s opening week, when the Bitcoin Market crossed above its cycle line at $100,158, establishing potential $125,882 upside objectives. The August 14 high of $124,517 fell $1,365 or 1.06% below target—within my 1% error margin, effectively meeting expectations.
This 40-week cycle peak was projected for August’s second week; if August 14 represents the 40-week summit, timing was precise. Possibility exists for the Bitcoin Market reaching new all-time highs before declining toward its 40-week cycle low by January 2026’s conclusion. However, this possibility requires prudent consideration since both 18-month and 40-week cycles will soon enter downward phases.
Success rate remains 100% with one positive signal.
Analyzing the 20-week cycle:
August 14’s $124,517 high constitutes the 20-week cycle peak. If last August 2024’s 18-month cycle low labeling proves accurate, the Bitcoin Market should cross below its cycle line, providing 83,983 potential downside targets.
Alternative scenarios suggest substantial market bullishness could enable the Bitcoin Market finding support along its cycle line, rebounding to establish new all-time highs. Monitoring next 20-week low formation location remains critically important. Expected downward cycle line crossing would indicate high probability downward trending for subsequent months. Until this materializes, the Bitcoin Market maintains bullish characterization.
Upon actual 20-week cycle low formation, I’ll construct the 20-week V.T.L. originating from April’s low. Market crossing below this V.T.L. will confirm next longer cycle peak—the 40-week—has formed or approaches formation.
Latest 20-week trading signal occurred during May’s opening week, when Bitcoin crossed above its cycle line at $96,117, providing $117,800 upside potential. Bitcoin achieved this target nine weeks later, generating $21,683 profit. Subsequently, markets continued ascending, establishing the August 14 $124,514 all-time high.
The 20-week cycle maintains 100% success rate with two positive trading signals.
The 80-day cycle analysis:
When markets crossed below V.T.L. on August 19, Bitcoin provided crucial intelligence. According to Hurst principles, this confirms next longer peak formation—specifically the 20-week cycle. Confidently labeling August’s high as the 20-week peak becomes possible.
Days preceding August 19, the Bitcoin Market crossed below its cycle line at $118,241, establishing potential $111,965 downside target for $6,276 potential profit. Two days later, markets met and exceeded targets while forming the next 80-day cycle low, expected August 28 (last Thursday’s vertical purple dashed line). The 80-day low appears several days delayed.
Following 80-day low formation, Bitcoin will cross above its cycle line, triggering new potential upside targets and confirming 20-week cycle low formation. Current 80-day cycle line values include corresponding potential targets upon upward crossings.
The 80-day cycle maintains 75% success rate: four trading signals since January yielding three positive and one negative results.
Following Hurst’s nominal model with August 29 low formation, the subsequent 80-day low should occur November 4, with peaks around October 2. Earlier peak formation would suggest sharp corrections following. Confirmation of next 80-day peaks requires analyzing lower cycles—specifically the 40-day cycle.
Examining the 40-day cycle expectations:
August 19 witnessed Bitcoin crossing below its 40-day V.T.L., confirming August 14 as both 40-day peak and next longer cycle—the 80-day cycle peak. Two days subsequently, Bitcoin crossed below its cycle line at $113,500, providing $102,483 potential downside target.
This 40-day cycle low expects formation September 9 (blue vertical dashed line). Bitcoin may rally toward its cycle line during upcoming days without crossing above, then resume declining to form concurrent 40-day, 80-day, and 20-week cycles.
As anticipated in previous updates, during last 40-day low formation, Bitcoin crossed below its cycle line, providing $111,964 potential target. August 3 witnessed Bitcoin forming lows just $45 below target. Expected July 26 timing delayed eight days.
August 10 saw Bitcoin crossing above its cycle line at $117,200, providing $122,481 potential upside target. Three days later, Bitcoin achieved $123,715 new all-time high, meeting and exceeding targets. Subsequently, Bitcoin established $124,517 all-time high. The $102,483 downside target remains valid until markets cross above cycle lines.
CONCLUSION:
Bitcoin’s current market structure suggests a critical juncture approaching. Multiple cycle confluences indicate potential trend shifts, with the August 14 high marking significant peaks across various timeframes. While immediate support around $85,000 remains likely, traders should monitor cycle line interactions carefully. The convergence of 18-month, 40-week, and shorter cycles entering downward phases warrants cautious optimism. Success rates across analyzed cycles demonstrate the methodology’s reliability, though prudent risk management remains essential during this transitional period.