The Bitcoin Market: Update July 21 2025
Introduction
On July 11, with a high of $118,839, the Bitcoin market reached its previous 20-week cycle upside target. Then, on July 14, with a high of $123,236, the Bitcoin market set a new all-time high. Are there any additional upside targets for Bitcoin? Let’s explore this in the following analysis.
Let’s start with the 18-month cycle.
We still expect the peak of the 18-month cycle to form this month or in August. The last 18-month low occurred in September 2024, and the next one is anticipated in February 2026, as indicated by the yellow vertical dashed line.
Where the Bitcoin market peaks relative to the cycle peak will provide valuable information. According to Hurst’s rules, if the market reaches its low before August, we can expect a sharp correction. Conversely, if it occurs after August, a moderate correction is likely. After reaching its peak, the Bitcoin market should decline to its cycle line, which will be around $85,000, with the possibility of dropping below this cycle line.
The location of the next 18-month cycle low will be crucial. If, during this formation, Bitcoin crosses below its cycle line, then the next critical support level will be the 18-month cycle trend line (VTL), represented by the yellow solid line. Crossing below the VTL will confirm that the peak before this crossing was at least a 54-month cycle peak or a 4.5-year cycle peak. However, for now, this information is not the most valuable from a trading perspective. Long-term, Bitcoin remains in a very bullish trend.
Now, let’s move to the next lower time frame: the 40-week cycle.
The last 40-week low for Bitcoin at $74,434 occurred a few weeks earlier than expected. The next one is projected for December or January 2026, as indicated by the blue vertical dashed line, depending on whether the 40-week cycle maintains the same length as the first one or is slightly longer to average 38.97 weeks in line with the Hurst nominal model.
As I mentioned in my last update, technically, during the next 40-week low formation, the Bitcoin market should cross below its cycle line, indicating a potential downside target.
The peak for this 40-week cycle is expected to occur during the second week of August. If the Bitcoin market peaks before August, we can expect a sharp correction. Otherwise, it should be a moderate correction. We will confirm the peak formation when the Bitcoin market crosses below its cycle line.
Now, let’s look at the 20-week cycle.
Since the last 20-week cycle low formed on April 7, the Bitcoin market has continued to rise, achieving a new all-time high of $123,236 last week. The next 20-week low is anticipated during the first two weeks of August. Depending on where it forms, this will indicate the remaining bullish potential in the Bitcoin market. Four weeks after forming its low, the 20-week cycle crossed above its cycle line at $96,117, providing a potential upside target of $117,800.
On July 11, the Bitcoin market reached a high of $118,839, slightly exceeding its target and yielding a substantial profit of about $21,683, or 22%.
When the 20-week cycle is complete, I will draw the 20-week cycle trend line (VTL), which will help identify the next 40-week cycle peak when the Bitcoin market crosses below it. Long-term cycles, from the 18-month down to the 20-week cycle, serve more as trend indicators than for trading. Nevertheless, trading the 20-week cycle this year has been very rewarding, with only two trading signals: one downside in February with a profit of $12,856, and another in May with a profit of $21,683, totaling $34,539.
Now, let’s discuss the 80-day cycle.
During the last 80-day low formation on June 22, the Bitcoin market briefly dipped below its cycle line for just one day, then rebounded sharply with a very bullish green candle. The market did not trigger any downside trading signals.
This low was anticipated on June 12, but it formed 10 days later. As mentioned in my previous Bitcoin market update, the market found support on its cycle line and rebounded to achieve a new all-time high at $123,236.
So, what’s next for the 80-day cycle?
If the current 80-day cycle follows the Hurst nominal model, we can expect the low to form on August 28. Since the last 80-day cycle lasted 76 days, the current cycle may be slightly shorter. It’s not uncommon for one cycle to be a bit longer and another a bit shorter. Technically, during the next 80-day cycle low formation, the Bitcoin market should cross below its cycle line, providing a potential downside target.
From the April 7 low to the last 80-day low formation, I’ve drawn the 80-day VTL. This VTL will help identify the next 80-day cycle peak before the cycle line. When the Bitcoin market crosses below this VTL, it will confirm the next 80-day peak according to Hurst’s rules, and more importantly, the next 20-week cycle peak.
With three trading signals, two positive and one negative, since the beginning of the year, the 80-day cycle has a 66.66% success rate.
The 40-Day Cycle
The previous 40-day cycle was anticipated to form a low on June 16, but it actually materialized on June 22, making it six days late.
Concurrently, the Bitcoin market fell short of its downside target of $94,734 by $3,506, which further indicates significant bullish sentiment within the Bitcoin market.
Following this low point, the Bitcoin market climbed back above its cycle line at $103,920, establishing a potential target of $109,600, which translates to a possible profit of $5,680, or 5.46%. On July 2, reaching a high of $109,802, the Bitcoin market achieved this target, yielding a profit of $5,680 in just ten days. Since the last 40-day cycle low, the Bitcoin market has rebounded by 25%.
The next 40-day low is expected on July 26. During the formation of this upcoming cycle, the Bitcoin market should cross below its cycle line.
On the top left of the chart, there is the table with the cycle line and their potential targets if the market drops below it. If the Bitcoin market reaches a new all-time high before crossing below its cycle line, the targets will need to be recalibrated according to the Hurst rule. This involves taking the new high, subtracting the cycle line number, and adjusting the difference accordingly.
If the Bitcoin market crosses below its cycle line during the formation of the next 40-day cycle low, it should rally back to its cycle line after forming the low, using it as resistance, and then continue its decline toward July 26. After this date, and following the formation of the low, the Bitcoin market is expected to rise back above its cycle line.
This will first confirm that the previous low is indeed the 40-day cycle low, and second, it will offer a new trading signal with a fresh potential upside target. However, given the current bullish sentiment in the Bitcoin market, there is a possibility that during the next 40-day cycle low formation, the market will find support at its cycle line without dropping below it.
Conclusion.
We anticipate that the Bitcoin market will soon reach its 20-week cycle peak and begin a correction as it heads toward the next 20-week cycle low in the first two weeks of August.