“Gold Market Analysis: Key Price Targets and Cycle Analysis”
Introduction
It’s been while since my last gold update.
My last 40 days upside target was 2,779,
The market made a high on December 12 2024 at 2,761, just 18 dollars below his target, the target has been fulfilled.
On the downside, the last target was 2,551 dollars, with a low at 2,596 on December 19, the market missed his target,
let’s see what’s happened since then, and the most important what we can expect for the next few weeks.
On my last S&P500 update, I switched the 1% margin of error to 0.50%.
But on the gold market, since the gold price is basically half the price of the S&P500, I will keep the 1% of margin of error, 1% on 2700 is only 27 dollar, which I believe is still very precise.
Let’s start with the 10 days cycle.
Since the last December 19 low, which was the last 40 days low, but due to the Hurst principle of synchronicity, was also the 10 days cycle.
The next 10 days cycle was expected on December 27, January 4 and 12.
On December 26, the Gold market crossed above his cycle line at 2,644, providing an upside target at 2,692 dollars.
On December 30, the gold market formed his first 10 days cycle since the December 19 low.
As expected the Gold market found support on his cycle line, this low occurred 3 days later than expected,
in this case we can expect the next one forming on January 7 2025.
On January 6, the gold market made his second 10 days cycle, just 1 day early.
We can expected the next low forming on January 14,
on January 14, right on time the Gold market formed his third 10 days low at 2,672 dollars.
We can expect the next one occur on January 22, on Tuesday.
The 20 days cycle
Since the last 20 days low occurred on December 19, we expect the next one for the January 6.
After forming his low on December 19, the gold market was expected to cross above his cycle line, providing the first 2025 target.
On January 6, right on the time target, as expected the Gold market made a low, the next one is schedule on January 24.
During the next 20 days cycle, the Gold market should cross below his cycle line, and provide a downside target.
On January 2 2025, the gold market crossed above his cycle line at 2,650, providing an upside target at 2,704 dollars,
54 dollars or 2.03% of potential profit.
with a high at 2,735 dollars on January 10, the gold market meet and exceed his target.
The first trading signal of the 2025, give a success rate of 100%.
On January 16, the gold made a new short term high for this 20 days cycle, and the high occurred on the right part of the cycle, we have a right time translation, which usually announce a mild correction.
What to expect next?
Technically the gold market should cross below his cycle line during the next 20 days low which is due on January 24.
The 40 days cycle
The last 40 days formation was on December 19 2024.
The next one is schedule to occur on January 24 2025.
On January 10, we had a trading signal when the gold market crossed above his cycle line at 2,694 for a 2,792 dollars potential upside target,
98 dollars or 3.63% of potential profits.
This target is very close to the 2,801 dollars all-time high.
Technically at that stage of the cycle, the gold market should at least find support on his cycle line, but there is a probability the Bull Run keep going.
The VTL or cycle trend line, draw from the November low to the last 40 days low on December 19 still intact,
any crossing below, will confirm the 40 days peak formation and also the 80 days peak.
To confirm the next longer cycle peak, the 20 weeks we have to go to the next longer time frame, the 80 days.
The 80 days cycle.
The last 80 days cycle formation was during the last 20 weeks formation on November 14 2024.
On January 10, the gold market crossed above his cycle line at 2,669, providing an upside target at 2,797 dollars,
128 dollars or almost 5% of potential profits.
Again very close to the all-time high
The next 80 days low is expected to form on January 22 2025.
It will be very important to see where the next low will form compare to his cycle line,
If the bull trend is to continue, the gold market should find support on his cycle line, and rebound sharply, otherwise if he cross below his cycle line then we can expect some bearishness coming in the gold market.
When the 80 days cycle low will be confirm, we can draw the cycle trend line or VTL, when the gold market will cross below, this will confirm the 80 days and the 20 weeks peak are formed or in formation.
The 20 weeks cycle
Since the last 2,801 dollars all-time high in October 2024,
The gold market crossed below his cycle line at 2,662 providing a downside target at 2,523,
139 dollars or 5.22 % of potential profits for peoples who short the market,
but like I mentioned in the previous update in bull market is not recommended to short the market.
2,596 was the lower low since the downside signal, missing his target by 73 dollars.
Last week the market crossed above his cycle line at 2,692 providing an upside target at 2,788 dollars
96$ or 3.56% of potential profit.
Since I draw the 20 weeks cycle trend line the green line, the gold market keep trading above, a crossing below will confirm the change of mood in the market and we can expect a further decline.
The next 20 weeks cycle is schedule for the end of March, and should cross below his cycle line and find support on his 40 week cycle line around 2,658 dollars.
According to the Hurst principle of synchronicity, the next 20 weeks cycle low will also be the 40 weeks cycle.
In Conclusion
The gold market is still in bullish trend, 2,797, 2,792 and 2,788, are the 80, 40 days and 20 weeks targets and there is an all-time high at 2801 dollars.
This level should be a very strong resistance.
The Next target zone to watch is 2800 and 2780 dollars.